基于北美多模式集合(NMME)的中部非洲季节性时间尺度上的气候预测技能和远程联系

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Roméo S. Tanessong, Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Samuel Kaissassou, G. M. Guenang, A. J. Komkoua Mbienda, Lucie A. Djiotang Tchotchou, Armand F. Tchinda, Derbetini A. Vondou, Wilfried M. Pokam, Pascal M. Igri, Zéphirin D. Yepdo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了北美多模式集合(NMME)季节性降水预报的技能,以及热带海洋表面温度(SST)异常及其远缘联系对中非(CA)降水预报技能的影响。评估了 12 月至 2 月(DJF)、3 月至 5 月(MAM)、6 月至 8 月(JJA)和 9 月至 11 月(SON)等季节在 0、3 和 6 个月提前期的降水预测技能。结果表明,在所有季节和所有提前期,本研究使用的模式都有高估热带地区观测到的海温的趋势。多模式集合平均值(MME)总体上成功地捕捉到了降水季节平均气候学的空间差异,并清楚地确定了在加利福尼亚观测到的降水的双模式和单模式性质。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 3.4 指数(Ninõ3.4)、印度洋偶极(IOD)西极指数(IODWP)和印度洋偶极东极指数(IODEP)与热带海温的远缘联系在所有季节和前缘时间都能很好地用模式相关系数(PCC)>0.6 表示。当前导时间增加时,这些远缘联系的质量下降。厄尔尼诺年期间,加利福尼亚州北部降水增强,而拉尼娜年期间降水减弱。IODWP 和 IODEP 与加利福尼亚降水的遥联系在 MAM 和 SON 中得到了很好的体现,PCC > 0.8。IODWP 和 IODEP 可以作为一个很好的指标来预测 MAM 和 SON 季节中亚降水的增减。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Climate forecast skill and teleconnections on seasonal time scales over Central Africa based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

Climate forecast skill and teleconnections on seasonal time scales over Central Africa based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

This study examines the skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal precipitation forecast and the influence of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and their teleconnections on precipitation prediction skill over Central Africa (CA). The skill is assessed for December–February (DJF), March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA), and September–November (SON) seasons, at 0-, 3-, and 6- month lead time. Results show that for all seasons and at all lead times, models used in this study have tendency to overestimate the observed SSTs over the tropical areas. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) generally succeeds in capturing the spatial differences in the seasonal mean climatology of precipitation and clearly determines the bi-modal and uni-modal natures of observed precipitation over CA. The El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation 3.4 index (Ninõ3.4), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) western pole index (IODWP), and IOD eastern pole index (IODEP) teleconnections with tropical SST are well represented by the MME at all seasons and lead times with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) >0.6. The quality of these teleconnections decreases when the lead time increases. The Ninõ3.4-induced precipitation’s teleconnection is better represented in MAM at all lead times, and it is found that precipitation is reinforced over northern CA during the El Ninõ years and weakened during the La Niña years. IODWP and IODEP teleconnections with CA precipitation are well represented in MAM and SON, with PCC > 0.8. The IODWP and IODEP could be a very good indicators to predict the increase or decrease of precipitation in CA during MAM and SON seasons.

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来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
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