The Potential of Distribution of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug Halyomorpha halys (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) in Europe Determined on the Basis of the Comparative Analysis of the Ecogeographical Borders of Its Range

Abstract

Halyomorpha halys is a harmful invasive species of heteropteran insects. We identified the ecological and geographical distribution boundaries of the species by analyzing the occurrences of H. halys in its native range (East Asia) and its invasive range (North America and Europe) and subsequently comparing these occurrences with maps of environmental factors. The limits of its ecological tolerance towards the primary limiting environmental factors affecting its distribution have been refined. The longer history of the invasion of this species in North America, the features of the spatial distribution of environmental factors, and the location of the initial penetration allowed H. halys to occupy its potential ecological niche more fully in North America compared to Europe. A comparative ecogeographical analysis of the current distribution of H. halys in North America has enabled an assessment of the species’ near-term prospects for distribution in Europe. The spread of the invader into Europe under contemporary climatic conditions may occur in an eastern direction—through the territory of Ukraine, the southern regions of Belarus, and the southwestern part of the Russian Federation. The boundaries of this advancement are primarily linked with the ability of H. halys to adapt to harsh overwintering conditions. Within large cities acting as heat islands, the formation of self-sustaining populations of H. halys up to 55° N latitude cannot be ruled out. However, significant territories in Eastern Europe are characterized by pessimal values for H. halys across multiple environmental factors simultaneously. This might contain the further spread of the species in Europe, hinder its naturalization, and reduce the occurrence of H. halys in these regions.