Deep Learning–Based Prediction Modeling of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Liver Transplantation

Objective

To validate deep learning models’ ability to predict post-transplantation major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT).

Patients and Methods

We used data from Optum’s de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database to identify liver transplant recipients between January 2007 and March 2020. To predict post-transplantation MACE risk, we considered patients’ demographics characteristics, diagnoses, medications, and procedural data recorded back to 3 years before the LT procedure date (index date). MACE is predicted using the bidirectional gated recurrent units (BiGRU) deep learning model in different prediction interval lengths up to 5 years after the index date. In total, 18,304 liver transplant recipients (mean age, 57.4 years [SD, 12.76]; 7158 [39.1%] women) were used to develop and test the deep learning model’s performance against other baseline machine learning models. Models were optimized using 5-fold cross-validation on 80% of the cohort, and model performance was evaluated on the remaining 20% using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR).

Results

Using different prediction intervals after the index date, the top-performing model was the deep learning model, BiGRU, and achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.841 (95% CI, 0.822-0.862) and AUC-PR of 0.578 (95% CI, 0.537-0.621) for a 30-day prediction interval after LT.

Conclusion

Using longitudinal claims data, deep learning models can efficiently predict MACE after LT, assisting clinicians in identifying high-risk candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve transplant outcomes based on important features identified by the model.