Comparing the payoff to vocational and academic secondary education in China over time

Vocational secondary education has been widely promoted in recent decades as a major component of economic reforms in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, whether vocational or academic secondary education better prepares students in LMICs to enter the labor market is still a matter of debate. In this study, we use data from six waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020) to examine the long-term income disparities between students who graduated from vocational high schools (VHS) and those who graduated from academic high schools (AHS). We first perform a cross-cohort analysis using unbalanced panel data to compare the wage incomes of VHS graduates and AHS graduates across many graduation cohorts. We then perform a cohort-specific analysis by constructing a subsample of students enrolled in high school in 2010 and comparing their income in subsequent years. Both analyses show that VHS enrollment is associated with a significant and lasting income disadvantage compared to AHS enrollment. Our findings highlight important future research and policy directions to improve the quality and outcomes of vocational secondary education in China.