Features of natural population movement in the region of the Central federal district. Forecast indicators.

The analysis made it possible to highlight the main features of the natural population movement in the Kostroma region as a region of the Central Federal District: depopulation of the population is observed – a long-term natural population decline, while the number of deaths significantly exceeds the number of births; natural decline was noted among both the urban and rural population of the region. Using predictive models without taking into account changes in the demographic situation during COVID‑19, it was calculated that in the Kostroma region we can expect an increase in the number of births per 1000 people from 8.5 in 2020 to 9.9 in 2024 (optimistic script); reduction to 8.9 in 2024 (according to the pessimistic scenario); growth to 9.4 in 2024 (according to the average forecast). In addition, a decrease in the number of deaths per 1000 population is calculated from 16.7 in 2020 to 11.7 in 2024 (according to the optimistic scenario); reduction to 13.0 in 2024 (according to the pessimistic scenario); to 12.3 in 2024 (according to the average forecast).