根据奥肯定律研究埃及(1990-2023 年)经济增长与失业之间的关系

مروه حجازى, محمد فوزى عبد العال, عبد السميع تحسين ابو العينين
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引用次数: 0

摘要

:本研究利用 1990 年至 2023 年的时间序列数据,批判性地调查了失业对埃及经济增长的影响。研究发现,失业与经济增长之间的关系是不利的,这表明降低失业率将确保埃及的经济增长。奥肯定律系数的影响表明,失业率与国内生产总值之间存在负相关关系,因为经济低增长是失业率上升的原因之一。由于总需求的减少会引发总供给的减少,生产的减少会导致经济增长率的下降。因此,企业裁员,导致失业率上升,加剧了长期失业问题。总之,研究结果支持奥肯定律,因为它们证明国内生产总值的增长会降低埃及的失业率。根据研究结果。模型检验结果表明,作为自变量的 GDP 增长与作为因变量的失业率增长之间不存在直接关系,但在水平差值与影响因素之间存在约(-0.386)的关系,显著性水平为 5%,这意味着产出增长率每增加 1%,失业率就会下降(-0.386%)。在后期,在其他因素不变的情况下,这符合奥肯定律,但这种关系只是短期的,而这两个变量之间是否存在长期的整合关系尚未得到证实。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Studying the relationship between economic growth and unemployment according to Okun's Law in Egypt during the period (1990-2023
: The study critically investigates the influence of unemployment on Egypt's economic growth using time series data from 1990 to 2023. The relationship between unemployment and economic growth was found to be adverse, indicating that reducing unemployment would ensure Egyptian economic growth. The effects of Okun's law coefficient suggest a negative association between unemployment and GDP, since low economic growth is one of the reasons for the rise in unemployment. As the decrease in aggregate demand triggers a decline in aggregate supply, a decrease in production leads to a decrease in economic growth rates. Thus, companies cut staff, which raises unemployment, exacerbating long-run unemployment issues. In summary, the study's findings support Okun's law, as they prove that growing GDP decreases unemployment in Egypt. Based on the findings. The results of the model tests showed that there is no direct relationship between GDP growth as an independent variable and the growth of the unemployment rate as a dependent variable, but there is a relationship between the difference at level and the influence factor by approximately (-0.386), with a significance level of 5%, meaning that an increase in the growth rate of output by 1% leads to a decrease in the unemployment rate by (-0.386%). In a later period, hold other factors constant. which is in line with Okun’s law, but this relationship is only in the short run, while the existence of a long-run integration relationship between the two variables has not been proven.
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