非洲上空日益加剧的人为热浪特征和与热有关的死亡率

Paul Ayodele Adigun, Emmanuel Owoicho Abah, Oluwaseun David Ajileye
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引用次数: 0

摘要

预计非洲热浪的频率、规模和持续时间都将增加。这一点意义重大,因为随着热浪的加剧,预计健康负担只会加重。由于对气候对非洲等发展中国家的健康影响缺乏足够的了解,因此保护处于危险中的弱势群体的健康具有挑战性。在这项研究中,我们量化了历史时期人类活动在热浪加剧中可能扮演的角色,并预测了在两种具有代表性的浓度路径(RCP26)和(RCP60)下非洲未来与热浪相关的死亡风险。热浪使用过热因子 (EHF) 进行测量;通过平均一天的过热因子 (Tx) 和过热因子 (Tn),使用每天的最小值 (Tn) 和最大值 (Tx) 计算过热因子指数。两个热量因子,即显著性热量因子(EHIsig)和适应性热量因子(EHIaccl)在 EHF 中合并,以量化总过量热量。我们的研究结果证实,历史时期非洲热浪的加剧可归因于大气温室气体强迫和土地利用的变化。回归事件凸显了气候变化和社会经济变量在未来可能导致的热浪升级。RCP26 表明,与热相关的死亡率将大幅上升,从历史时期的每年约 9,000 例死亡增加到 21 世纪末的每年约 23,000 例死亡。同样,RCP60 的增幅更大,与高温相关的死亡人数增至每年约 4.3 万人。这项研究强调,在不同的排放情景下,非洲热浪加剧的潜在风险越来越大。研究预测,热浪的规模、持续时间、频率以及与高温相关的死亡率都将大幅增加。非洲较低的适应能力将扩大这种影响,从而强调了减少排放和采取有效适应措施的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Intensifying human-driven heatwaves characteristics and heat related mortality over Africa
Heatwaves in Africa are expected to increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration. This is significant because the health burden is only expected to worsen as heatwaves intensify. Inadequate knowledge of the climate's impact on health in developing nations such as Africa makes safeguarding the health of vulnerable groups at risk challenging. In this study we quantify possible role of human activity in heatwave intensification during the historical period, and project the future risk of heat-related mortality in Africa under two representative Concentration Pathways (RCP26) and (RCP60). Heatwaves are measured using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF); the daily minimum (Tn) and maximum (Tx) are used to compute the EHF index; by averaging the day's Tx and Tn. Two heat factors, significance (EHIsig) and acclimatization (EHIaccl) are combined in the EHF to quantify the total excess heat. Our results confirm that the recent intensification of heatwaves over Africa during the historical period is attributable atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing and changes in land use. The Return event highlights the potential future escalation of heatwave conditions brought on by climate change and socioeconomic variables. RCP26 indicates a substantial rise in heat-related mortality, with an increase from about 9,000 deaths per year in the historical period to approximately 23,000 deaths per year at the end of the 21st century. Similarly, the RCP60 showed an even more significant increase, with heat-related deaths increasing to about 43,000 annually. This study highlights the potentially growing risk of intensifying heatwaves in Africa under different emission scenarios. It projects a significant increase in heatwave magnitude, duration, frequency, and heat-related mortality. Africa's low adaptive capacity will amplify the impact, emphasizing the need for emissions reduction and effective adaptation measures.
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