气候变化和社会经济情景下的未来饮用水供应需求预测:埃塞俄比亚北部 Gshba 子流域案例

Mehari Gebreyohannes Hiben, Admasu Gebeyehu Awoke, Abraha Adugna Ashenafi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文旨在对 2023 年至 2050 年在各种气候变化和社会经济发展情景下该分流域的饮用水供应需求进行量化预测。气候的多变性以及由此导致的城市化问题威胁着水资源的可用性,尤其是在埃塞俄比亚这样的欠发达国家。因此,本研究的主要目的是展示提前确定所需水量的必要性,以便在不同情景下,在未来特定时期内满足水资源的可用性。我们基于指标的方法采用了多标准决策技术。因此,除了与水利工程相关的因素(如水量损失)外,还考虑了几个重要变量,包括气候、人类学、人口、社会经济和经济变量。该方法还考虑了一些因素,如意外和极端温度变化,以及埃塞俄比亚水利和能源部研究的预测因素。该子流域的预计人口约为 252 万人,因此到 2050 年,预计的总供水需求,即家庭、非家庭、工业、商业、公共和机构的供水需求约为 1.2653 亿立方米/年。我们的研究结果揭示了气候和社会经济因素的变化如何强烈影响未来水资源系统的性能,这将有助于水服务提供商更好地确定现有基础设施翻新和新基础设施投资的优先次序,更重要的是,通过引入弹性适应方案来有效管理该次流域。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Future potable water supply demand projection under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Gshba subbasin, Northern Ethiopia
This paper aims to quantify the subbasin’s potable water supply demand forecast from 2023 to 2050 under various scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. The variability of the climate and the resulting problems with urbanization threaten the availability of water resources, especially in less developed countries like Ethiopia. Thus, the main objective of this study is showing the necessary to determine the amount of water needed in advance, in order to comply with the availability of water resources within a specified future period under different scenarios. Our indicator-based approach used a multicriteria decision-making technique. Accordingly, several important variables were considered, including climatological, anthropological, demographic, socioeconomic, and economic variables, in addition to water engineering-related factors (e.g. Water losses). The method also considered a number of factors, such as unexpected and extreme temperature changes, and forecasting factors studied by the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy. The projected population in the subbasin is estimated at 2.52 million, so the total projected water supply demand i.e., for domestic, non-domestic, industrial, commercial, public, and institutional is approximately 126.53 MCM/yr by 2050. Our results revealed how changes in both climatic and socioeconomic factors strongly influence future water resource system performance, and this will help the water services provider better prioritize the refurbishment of existing infrastructure and investment in new infrastructure, and more importantly, manage the subbasin effectively by introducing resilient adaptation options.
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