使用双指数平滑法对阿尔及利亚癌症病例进行时间序列预测

IF 0.2 Q4 BIOTECHNOLOGY & APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY

Research Journal of Biotechnology Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI:10.25303/1903rjbt01012

Talbi Melissa, Adjebli Ahmed, Tighilet Karim, Louardiane Mustapha, Messis Abdelaziz

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引用次数: 0

摘要

癌症是全球第二大死因。随着老龄化和人口增长，癌症的流行率和发病率不断上升。本研究旨在预测 2014-2019 年期间乳腺癌、结直肠癌、肺癌、膀胱癌和前列腺癌的演变情况并建立模型。本研究采用时间序列分析和双指数平滑法分析数据，以预测未来模式。为了描述和拟合适当的模型，使用了 Minitab 统计软件版本 17。从 2014 年到 2019 年，新登记癌症病例的原始数量总体呈逐年上升趋势；观测值随时间的变化也在不断增加。由于我们对 2020 年的预测结果良好，而 2021 年和 2022 年的数据尚未获得，因此我们的预测模型得到了验证。时间序列分析表明，双指数平滑法是建立未来癌症新病例原始数据模型的有效工具。

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Time series forecasting cancers cases in Algeria using double exponential smoothing method

Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers are getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and model the evolution of breast, colorectal, lung, bladder and prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data are not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

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来源期刊

Research Journal of Biotechnology BIOTECHNOLOGY & APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY-

CiteScore

0.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

192

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