在大气层空气保护的风险和不确定性条件下支持决策的知识表示概率模型实例

I. Kameneva, V. O. Artemchuk, A. V. Іatsyshyn, А.A. Vladimirsky
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了将战争和人为危险条件下决策所需的经验系统化和集成化,以及为了控制温室气体或其他有害物质的排放,已经开发了知识展示模型,这些模型既考虑了现有数据的分析结果,也考虑了对人造企业和邻近地区安全状况的概率评估。为了改进决策过程,考虑了一些概率模型,这些模型基于对危险事件发生的主观概率估计的计算和相应风险的预测。在建模过程中会考虑各种不同性质的因素:外部影响、有害物质浓度、温室气体排放、人造产品的安全状况指标、设备效率、违规记录以及其他指标。此外,该知识系统还可计算危险事件的风险,在两个或多个危险因素相互作用的情况下,发生危险事件的概率会增加。在已开展研究的基础上,开发了一种建立概率知识模型的算法和结构,重点是在决策支持系统中实施软件,以管理对居民和自然环境构成威胁的人造企业的安全。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Probabilistic Models of Knowledge Representation to Support Decision-Making in Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty in Atmospheric Air Protection Example
In order to systematize and integrate the acquired experience necessary for decision-making in conditions of war and man-made danger, as well as for the purpose of controlling emissions of greenhouse gases or other harmful substances, knowledge presentation models have been de-veloped that take into account both the results of the analysis of available data and probabilistic assessments of the state safety of man-made enterprises and adjacent territories. In order to im-prove the decision-making process, a number of probabilistic models are considered, which are based on the calculation of subjective probability estimates regarding the occurrence of danger-ous events and forecasting the corresponding risks. Factors of various nature are considered during modeling: external influences, concentrations of harmful substances, greenhouse gas emissions, indicators of the state of safety of man-made productions, efficiency of equipment, accounting of violations, and other indicators. Also, the knowledge system provides for calcu-lating the risks of dangerous events, the probability of which increases under the interaction of two or a number of hazardous factors. On the basis of the conducted research, an algorithm for building and the structure of a probabilistic model of knowledge focused on software implementation in the decision-making support system for managing the safety of man-made enterprises that pose threats to the popula-tion and the natural environment has been developed.
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