基于 2017 - 2021 年数据,使用单指数和双指数平滑法预测北苏门答腊玉米产量(北苏门答腊中央统计局案例研究)

Syairul Amri Saragih, Asritanarni Munar, Wilda Rina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

北苏门答腊省在玉米(Zae Mays)作物的管理和营销方面潜力巨大。玉米种植是一种优势产品,从商品销售和加工中可以获得最大的收入,从而帮助政府改善经济。本研究旨在确定北苏门答腊省来年的玉米产量。本研究的数据收集使用二级数据,即从其他方面获得的一级数据,这些数据通常以表格和图表的形式呈现。从北苏门答腊省中央统计局获得的数据为:2017 年玉米产量为 1,741,257 吨,2018 年玉米产量为 1,710,784 吨,2019 年玉米产量为 1,960,424 吨,2020 年玉米产量为 1,965.444 吨,2021 年玉米产量为 1 724 398 吨。为了解玉米产量的增长情况,需要考虑和比较预测方法,以最大限度地减少预测误差,其目的是接近现实。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Forescating the Amount of Corn Production in North Sumatra Based on 2017 – 2021 Data Using The Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Method (Case Study of Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra )
North Sumatra Province has high potential in the management and marketing of corn (Zae Mays) crops. Cultivation of corn plants is a superior product where the largest income is obtained from the sale of commodities and their processing so that they can assist the government in improving the economy. This study aims to determine the yield of corn in North Sumatra Province in the coming year. Data collection for this study uses secondary data, namely primary data obtained from other parties which are generally made in the form of tables and diagrams. Data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra for corn production in 2017 was 1,741,257 tons, corn production in 2018 was 1,710,784 tons, corn production in 2019 was 1,960,424 tons, corn production in 2020 was 1,965. 444 tons, corn production in 2021 is 1,724,398 tons. To find out the increase in corn production, the consideration and comparison of the forecasting methods needed to minimize forecast errors that aim to approach reality are the single and double exponential smoothing methods with one parameter from Brown.
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