用于制定低碳过渡时期能源系统参考方案的动态模型

Viktor Denysov, Tatyana Eutukhova
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摘要

拟议的研究旨在开发与能源开发系统有关的动态投入产出模型。主要任务是找到最佳方案,即生产和资本投资之间的最佳平衡序列。这些模型植根于列昂惕夫的投入产出概念,强调引进新生产系统的时机。文章讨论了部门间模型的经济解释和数学条件,并研究了它们在能源相关问题上的应用。该模型采用平衡均衡增长的概念,即所有资源的消耗量与净释放量之比相同,且至少有一种资源的储备量得到充分利用。系统的增长率是决定平衡增长轨迹的最重要参数。求解不等式系统可得到平衡增长轨迹,其中主根和相关的特征向量起着关键作用。平衡均衡增长率具有存在鞍点的最小值特性,这表明它在实现市场均衡的同时防止库存减少方面的重要性。本文介绍了该模型的实际应用。介绍了乌克兰 IPS 电力生产的悲观情景、参考情景和乐观情景的计算结果。使用了官方统计信息和经济预测,并考虑了各种限制条件。该模型旨在最大限度地降低发电总成本,同时尊重环境和运行限制。所提出的模型为了解乌克兰 IPS 的资源储备、消耗和电力生产增长的动态提供了全面的基础。它为决策者提供了一个有价值的工具,在考虑到各种情况和限制因素的前提下优化发电策略,以实现能源系统的可持续和经济高效运行。关键词动态投入产出模型、最佳方案、平衡增长、系统增长率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamic models for developing reference scenarios of energy system in the low-carbon transition
The proposed study is aimed at the development of dynamic input-output models in relation to energy development systems. The main task is to find optimal scenarios, defined as sequences of optimal balances between production and capital investment. These models are rooted in Leontief's conceptual concept of input-output, which emphasizes the timing of the introduction of new production systems. The article discusses the economic interpretation and mathematical conditions of intersectoral models, and examines their application to problems related to energy. The model uses the concept of balanced equilibrium growth, in which the ratio of consumption to net release is the same for all resources, and the reserve of at least one resource is fully utilized. The growth rate of the system is the most important parameter that determines the trajectory of balanced growth. Solving the system of inequalities yields balanced growth trajectories in which the dominant root and the associated vector of characteristics plays a key role. A balanced equilibrium growth rate has the properties of a minimax with the presence of a saddle point, which indicates its importance in achieving market equilibrium while preventing a reduction in inventories. The practical application of the model is described. The results of calculations of pessimistic, reference and optimistic scenarios of electricity production in the IPS of Ukraine are presented. Official statistical information and economic forecasts are used, and various restrictions are taken into account. The model aims to minimize the total cost of electricity generation while respecting environmental and operational constraints. The proposed model provides a comprehensive basis for understanding the dynamics of resource reserves, consumption and growth of electricity production of the IPS of Ukraine. It offers decision-makers a valuable tool to optimize electricity generation strategies, taking into account a range of scenarios and constraints, for the sustainable and cost-effective operation of the energy system. Keywords: Dynamic input-output models, optimal scenarios, balanced equilibrium growth, growth rate of the system.
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