从褐色到绿色:新兴国家的发展方向正确吗?检验 LCC 假设的有效性

Zhenzhen Feng, Farah Durani, Ahsan Anwar, Paiman Ahmad, Q. Syed, Ali Abbas
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引用次数: 0

摘要

自 2015 年联合国批准可持续发展目标以来,新兴经济体在实现可持续发展目标的过程中面临着一些问题。环境退化是新兴国家面临的主要问题之一。为了克服这一问题,实现可持续发展目标,本研究首次尝试在负荷能力曲线框架下,研究 1996-2019 年 E-7 国家经济政策不确定性、可再生能源消费和技术创新对负荷能力因子的非对称影响。初步检验证实数据不存在正态性,因此我们采用了面板量化回归。研究结果表明,E-7 国家(包括中国、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、巴西、墨西哥、印度和土耳其)存在 U 型负载能力曲线假说。这一发现表明,在早期阶段,国内生产总值对环境质量有不利影响,但在达到临界水平后,国内生产总值的进一步增长有助于提高环境质量。经济政策不确定性的增加会导致负荷能力系数下降,而可再生能源消费对提高环境质量的负荷能力系数具有有利影响。技术创新的负面影响是,当前的技术模式对环境没有支持作用。根据这些实证结果,本研究提出了一些重要的政策措施,以实现可持续发展目标,包括可持续发展目标 07、可持续发展目标 08、可持续发展目标 09 和可持续发展目标 13,分别涉及 E-7 经济体的可再生能源、经济增长、创新和气候行动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
From brown to green: Are emerging countries moving in right direction? Testing the validity of LCC hypothesis
Since the United Nations endorsed the sustainable development goals in 2015, emerging economies have faced several issues in meeting the objectives set by the sustainable development goals. Environmental degradation is one of the main issues faced by emerging countries. To overcome this issue and for attaining sustainable development goals, this study is the earliest attempt to examine the asymmetric influence of economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption, and technological innovations on load capacity factor under the framework of the load capacity curve for E-7 countries during 1996–2019. The preliminary tests confirm the absence of data normality; hence, we use panel quantile regression. The findings of the study reveal the presence of a U-shaped load capacity curve hypothesis in E-7 countries including China, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Turkey. This finding depicts that at an earlier stage, gross domestic product has an adverse influence on environmental quality but after achieving its threshold level, a further increase in gross domestic product growth becomes helping to boost environmental quality. An increase in economic policy uncertainty leads to a decrease in load capacity factor while renewable energy consumption has a favorable impact on load capacity factor to enhance environmental quality. The negative impact of technological innovation is that prevailing technology patterns are not environmentally supportive. Relying on these empirical outcomes current study recommends significant policy measures to achieve the targets of sustainable development goals including SDG 07, SDG 08, SDG 09, and SDG 13 as renewable energy, economic growth, innovations, and climate action, respectively, in E-7 economies.
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