Re–operating the Bhumibol and Sirikit Dams Using Hybrid Neuro–Fuzzy Technique to Solve the Water Scarcity and Flooding Problems in the Chao Phraya River Basin

The decision support system to reservoir re–operation using Artificial Intelligence has been broadly studied and proven in term of the operational performances for both single and multiple reservoir system, this study applied Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) technique for reservoir re–operation in Chao Phraya River Basin aiming to reduce water scarcity and flooding problems in the central region of Thailand. ANFIS is an integrated approach in which neural networks are utilized to enhance the fuzzy inference system and create fuzzy “IF–Then” reservoir operational guidelines with proper membership functions for reservoir re–operation. In this study, ANFIS operating rules were trained using two different datasets; long–term dataset (scenario 1) and water year–based dataset (scenario 2). It is revealed that the extent of yearly water deficit in critical dry years are totally reduced to nearly zero when re–operating with ANFIS operation rules, except in the year 2012. However, the yearly water deficit in year 2012 is also substantially reduced from 504 MCM by the current operation to 127 and 119 MCM for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively when two scenarios of ANFIS–based reservoir re–operation model were performed. Moreover, considerable total amount of spilled water from BB and SK Dams is definitely declined to 0 and 37 MCM in years 2002 and 2011, respectively when water year–based ANFIS model was implemented. In addition, it is expressed that average water storages of two main dams obtained from two scenarios of ANFIS model are substantially increased up to +6.08% and +6.94% for BB Dam and +0.09% and +1.62% for SK Dam in comparison with the current operation. This signifies that supplying water from dams to meet the target water demand through adaptive fuzzy–rules can be well handled and flooded water can be minimized.