The PM2.5 pollution rebound effect and industrial structure adjustment in China: The impact of heterogeneous technological progress and resource dependence

Adjusting industrial structure is the fundamental way of pollution control and environmental protection. Analyzing the PM2.5 pollution rebound effect of industrial structure adjustment based on heterogeneous technological progress and resource dependence is of great significance for in-depth and sustained pollution reduction. The results of combining the panel threshold regression model and the modified STIRPAT model on provincial panel data from 2008 to 2022 show that a 1% increase in structural upgrading results in a 0.4130% decrease in PM2.5 pollution; a 1% increase in structural rationalization results in a 0.0934% decrease in PM2.5 pollution. Resource dependence causes the PM2.5 pollution rebound effect of industrial structure adjustment; industrial structure upgrading with resource dependence has an insignificant increase effect on PM2.5 pollution, 1% increase of rationalization with resource dependence leads to a 2.8637% increase in PM2.5 pollution. As technology progresses, the increasing effect of industrial structure upgrading with resource dependence on pollution gradually weakens and finally transforms into a reduction effect; the reduction effect of industrial structure rationalization with resource dependence becomes an increasing effect causing the rebound to reappear and then turns to be a reduction effect again, show an invert “N.” Heterogeneous technological progress has the paradox impact mechanism on the pollution rebound; environmental protection technological progress can eliminate the pollution rebound, whereas energy-saving technological progress may cause a pollution rebound effect of industrial structure rationalization.