{"title":"瓦格纳假说能否解释转型期国家的医疗支出动态?","authors":"Ebru Çağlayan Akay, Zamira Oskonbaeva","doi":"10.24193/tras.71e.3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to analyze the short and long run causal relationship between public health expenditure and GDP per capita in transition economies within the context of the Wagner hypothesis. For the period 2000-2020, the empirical analysis was conducted using a dataset covering 22 transition countries: Latvia, Belarus, Czechia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia, Croatia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Ukraine, Armenia, Lithuania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Romania, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Kazakhstan.\nWagner emphasizes that increases in government expenditure, considered an endogenous variable, do not drive GDP growth. In essence, Wagner argues that a rise in GDP leads to an increase in government expenditures. The study assessed the validity of Wagner’s hypothesis by applying the Panel Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (CS-ARDL), developed by Chudik et al. (2016), using annual data. For the empirical analysis, panel data from selected transition countries underwent causality tests proposed by Juodis, Karavias and Sarafidis (2021) and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The stationarity of the series was assessed using a panel unit root test. Subsequently, the panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund (2007) was employed to ascertain the long run cointegration of the variables in the subsequent phase. The results suggest that the Wagner hypothesis holds true within the context of transition countries, as indicated by the outcomes of the CS-ARDL model. The causality test revealed a one-way causal linkage between GDP per capita and health expenditure. Recommendations for those who make policy decisions were made in light of the findings.","PeriodicalId":45832,"journal":{"name":"Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Does Wagner’s Hypothesis Explain the Dynamics of Health Expenditures\\nin Transition Countries?\",\"authors\":\"Ebru Çağlayan Akay, Zamira Oskonbaeva\",\"doi\":\"10.24193/tras.71e.3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The purpose of this study is to analyze the short and long run causal relationship between public health expenditure and GDP per capita in transition economies within the context of the Wagner hypothesis. For the period 2000-2020, the empirical analysis was conducted using a dataset covering 22 transition countries: Latvia, Belarus, Czechia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia, Croatia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Ukraine, Armenia, Lithuania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Romania, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Kazakhstan.\\nWagner emphasizes that increases in government expenditure, considered an endogenous variable, do not drive GDP growth. In essence, Wagner argues that a rise in GDP leads to an increase in government expenditures. The study assessed the validity of Wagner’s hypothesis by applying the Panel Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (CS-ARDL), developed by Chudik et al. (2016), using annual data. For the empirical analysis, panel data from selected transition countries underwent causality tests proposed by Juodis, Karavias and Sarafidis (2021) and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The stationarity of the series was assessed using a panel unit root test. Subsequently, the panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund (2007) was employed to ascertain the long run cointegration of the variables in the subsequent phase. The results suggest that the Wagner hypothesis holds true within the context of transition countries, as indicated by the outcomes of the CS-ARDL model. The causality test revealed a one-way causal linkage between GDP per capita and health expenditure. Recommendations for those who make policy decisions were made in light of the findings.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45832,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.24193/tras.71e.3\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.24193/tras.71e.3","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Does Wagner’s Hypothesis Explain the Dynamics of Health Expenditures
in Transition Countries?
The purpose of this study is to analyze the short and long run causal relationship between public health expenditure and GDP per capita in transition economies within the context of the Wagner hypothesis. For the period 2000-2020, the empirical analysis was conducted using a dataset covering 22 transition countries: Latvia, Belarus, Czechia, Georgia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Estonia, Croatia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Ukraine, Armenia, Lithuania, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Romania, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Kazakhstan.
Wagner emphasizes that increases in government expenditure, considered an endogenous variable, do not drive GDP growth. In essence, Wagner argues that a rise in GDP leads to an increase in government expenditures. The study assessed the validity of Wagner’s hypothesis by applying the Panel Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (CS-ARDL), developed by Chudik et al. (2016), using annual data. For the empirical analysis, panel data from selected transition countries underwent causality tests proposed by Juodis, Karavias and Sarafidis (2021) and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). The stationarity of the series was assessed using a panel unit root test. Subsequently, the panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund (2007) was employed to ascertain the long run cointegration of the variables in the subsequent phase. The results suggest that the Wagner hypothesis holds true within the context of transition countries, as indicated by the outcomes of the CS-ARDL model. The causality test revealed a one-way causal linkage between GDP per capita and health expenditure. Recommendations for those who make policy decisions were made in light of the findings.
期刊介绍:
TRAS represents a collective effort initiated by an international group aimed at boosting the research in the field of public administration in a country where during the communist regime there was no tradition in this sense. TRAS represents a unique source of specialized analysis of the ex-communist space, of the transition processes to democracy, of the reform of public administration, and of comparative analysis of administrative systems. The general topic covered by the articles in the Review is administrative sciences. As a result of an interdisciplinary, modern approach, the articles cover the following specific themes: Public management, public policy, administrative law, public policy analysis, regional development, community development, public finances, urban planning, program evaluation in public administration, ethics, comparative administrative systems, etc. TRAS encourages the authors to submit articles that are based on empirical research. From the standpoint of the topic covered, TRAS is lined up with the trends followed by other international journals in the field of public administration. All articles submitted to the Transylvanian Review of Administrative Sciences have to present a clear connection to the field of administrative sciences and the research (both theoretical and empirical) should be conducted from this perspective. Interdisciplinary topics related to organizational theory, sustainable development and CSR, international relations, etc. can be considered for publication, however the research needs to address relevant issues from the perspective of the public sector. Articles which use highly specialized econometrics models as well as studies addressing macro-economic topics will not be considered for evaluation. The decision on whether a certain topic falls within the interest of TRAS belongs to the editors and it is not connected with the overall quality of the work submitted.