双重非对称影响、动态相关性和市场风险中的风险管理:中美比较研究

Yu Poshan, Haoran Xu, Jianing Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化、经济制裁、地缘政治冲突等极端冲击是当前全球面临的重大而复杂的问题。本文从中美两国的视角出发,运用 DCC-DAGM 模型研究了多样化的市场风险对收益波动的非对称性影响,并提取了股指与对冲资产之间的相关性。然后,利用多种风险降低措施,研究了由最优权重和对冲比率构建的多元化投资组合和对冲投资组合。实证结果表明:第一,多元化风险对收益波动的长期影响是不对称的,而在短期内,美国股市比中国市场对负收益冲击更敏感。其次,风险对不同时间跨度和不同国家的相关性的影响也不同。美国股市的短期相关性强于长期相关性,而中国股市的相关性更为稳定。第三,对冲策略在降低美股的波动性和风险方面更为有效,而分散化策略对中国股市更为有效。这些发现对市场参与者在动荡时期努力使自己的投资组合保持稳健具有启示意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Double Asymmetric Impacts, Dynamic Correlations, and Risk Management Amidst Market Risks: A Comparative Study between the US and China
Extreme shocks, including climate change, economic sanctions, geopolitical conflicts, etc., are significant and complex issues currently confronting the global world. From the US–China perspective, this paper employs the DCC-DAGM model to investigate how diverse market risks asymmetrically affect return volatility, and extract correlations between stock indices and hedging assets. Then, diversified and hedging portfolios, constructed by optimal weight and hedge ratio, are investigated using multiple risk reduction measures. The empirical results highlight that, first, diverse risks exhibit an asymmetric effect on the return volatility in the long term, while in the short term, the US stock market is more sensitive to negative return shocks than the Chinese market. Second, risks impact correlations differently across time horizons and countries. Short-term correlations are stronger than long-term ones for the US market, with the Chinese stock market displaying more stable correlations. Third, the hedging strategy is more effective in reducing volatility and risk for US stocks, while the diversification strategy proves more effective for Chinese stocks. These findings have implications for market participants striving to make their portfolios robust during turbulent times.
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