通过软政策诱导预期行为

Tamer Başar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在我们的日常生活中,诱导、激励、说服以及某种程度上的引诱等术语被用来描述这样一种情况,即一个人(决策者或实体)以某种方式影响另一个人或另一些人的决策过程,其结果可能使所有相关人员受益,也可能只使发起这一过程的人受益。这种影响可以通过两种不同的方式施加(当然也存在不同的方式):通过影响者对接收方的效用或回报(或损失)的直接输入,或通过控制(可能是精心制作)流向后者的信息流,试图塑造接收端的信念(如传播虚假信息)。这两种情况(以及介于两者之间的情况)都可以在动态斯塔克尔伯格博弈理论框架内进行分析,本文将讨论均衡的精确概念。本文的重点自然是软性诱导(激励、说服)政策,而不是硬性执行(如威胁)政策,后者并不那么有趣或实用。这篇综述性论文介绍了一些明确的模型,这些模型能使这类政策具有吸引力。本文还讨论了人口数量和建模中的不确定性等各种因素对均衡结果的影响,并指出了未来面临的几个挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inducement of Desired Behavior via Soft Policies
Terms like inducement, incentivization, persuasion, and to some extent enticement, are used in our daily lives to describe situations where one individual (decision maker, or entity) acts in a way to influence the decision-making process of another individual or individuals, where the outcome could benefit all involved or only the one who has initiated the process. Such influence could be exerted in two different ways (though variations do exist): via a direct input by the influencer into the utility or reward (or loss) of the receiving party, or by controlling (and possibly crafting) the information flow to the latter, in an attempt to shape beliefs at the receiving end (as in spread of disinformation). Both scenarios (and those that fall in between) could be analyzed within a dynamic Stackelberg game-theoretic framework, with a precise notion of equilibrium, which this paper addresses. The focus will naturally be on soft inducement (incentivization, persuasion) policies, rather than hard enforcement (such as threat) ones which are not that interesting or practical. This overview paper introduces some explicit models that lead to appealing such policies. It also includes a discussion on the impact of various factors, such as population size and uncertainty in modeling, on the resulting equilibria, and identify several challenges that lie ahead.
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