A Synthesis on Impact Assessment Models from the Perspective of Evolution of the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Purpose: This paper aims at comparatively evaluating representative-type and agent-based models with respect to various technical criteria. Thus, it tries to provide clues as to which modelling capacities can be used for impact analyses of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper first elucidates the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy, then reviews the existing empirical impact assessment approaches and tools with a critical eye to derive the strengths and weaknesses in terms of data requirement, created indicators, social, economic and environmental specifics and policy content. The paper particularly aims at revealing how different assessment approaches respond to evolution of the EU’s common agricultural policy. Findings: Modelling exercises certainly embody a trade-off while choosing the methodology that is going to be used. There is definitely no one modelling platform that creates answers for all the questions. It is essential to ascertain the end users of the research outcomes and the specific research questions. The answers to these queries will help to establish the analysis scale in terms of the affects that are going to be assessed. Hence, the necessity to use a representative systems approach or instead an agent-based modelling platform will be understood. Accurate definition of the explicit and implicit goals of the analyses is also of utmost importance. Originality/Uniqueness: To the best of the authors' knowledge, there is no other study in the domestic literature that includes a comparative analysis similar to the survey that is the subject of this study. ABSTRACT The agricultural sector has been intertwined with socio-economic and environmental problems. The economic and institutional structures of the EU members do vary, and societal demands in rural areas change. The CAP of the EU has been evolving since the 1960s to cope with changing pressures. However, coping with the heterogeneity among countries becomes another challenge, particularly in quantitative policy impact analyses, which have been carried out by partial and general equilibrium type models, sector models, econometric models, and simulation models. In the last decade, the use of agent-based approaches that consider spatial, social, and economic heterogeneity and the risk behaviours of farms has been increasing. This paper reviews the existing quantitative impact assessment approaches to derive their strengths and weaknesses in terms of data requirements and social, economic, and environmental specifics and aims to explain why new-generation agricultural impact assessment models need to take into account the progress in information technology and communication tools and big data analytics in addition to changes in the EU CAP objectives and instruments of policy measures.