比较澳大利亚火灾气候的观测变化和预测变化

Fire Pub Date : 2024-03-31 DOI:10.3390/fire7040113
Roger N. Jones, J. Ricketts
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引用次数: 0

摘要

森林火险指数(FFDI)是澳大利亚估算火灾风险的主要指标。作者最近的研究表明,森林火灾危险指数形成了稳定的状态机制,被称为火灾气候机制。2000 年前后,澳大利亚南部和东部的火灾强度有所提高,十年后又进一步向北提高。大气湿度的降低是主要原因。这些变化尚未完全纳入未来预测。本文将最近的制度转变与 2015 年发布的最新全国粮食与农业发展指数预测进行了比较。结果表明,对于大多数州和地区而言,除了南澳大利亚州和西澳大利亚州这两个拥有大片干旱区的州之外,最近的变化已经接近或超过了 2030 年的上限。归因于过去变化的方法、构建预测的方法以及气候模型无法再现近期大气湿度下降的情况,都是造成这些低估的原因。为了弥补这些不足,我们提出了一些建议,以修改旨在对未来火灾风险进行无缝预测和预报的工作。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates
The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk.
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