估算规范大学面授讲座对 COVID-19 传播的影响:来自日本的证据

IF 0.7 Q4 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Michinao Okachi, Haewon Youn
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大学是 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行期间唯一限制亲自授课的教育机构。本研究首次尝试估算限制亲自授课对遏制 COVID-19 传播的影响。我们的调查以日本大学为对象,因为它们的各种授课方式都适合我们的分析。我们采用了多事件研究负二项回归模型,结果表明,限制面授讲座的比例对降低 COVID-19 在大学生中的感染率效果有限。例如,如果大学限制几乎所有面授讲座的比例,而不是超过一半的面授讲座比例,那么在改变前后七周之间,每 10,000 名学生中的感染人数将下降 5.5 人。其他讲课方式的变化差异甚至更小。此外,我们还估算了长假开始对感染人数的影响,结果发现,在学期末,无论采用哪种授课方式,长假都会导致相对较高的感染率。这意味着学生在课外比在课堂上更容易受到感染。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating the Effects of Regulating In-Person University Lectures on the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Japan
Universities were the only educational institutions that restricted in-person lectures during the prolonged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study is the first attempt to estimate the effects of restricting in-person lectures on containing the spread of COVID-19. Our investigation was conducted on Japanese universities since their various lecture styles are suitable for our analysis. A multiple-event study negative binomial regression model was employed, and the results showed that restricting the ratio of in-person lectures had limited effects on decreasing COVID-19 infections among university students. For example, if universities restrict almost all in-person lecture from a rate of over half of in-person lectures, the number of student infections would decline by 5.5 per 10,000 students between seven weeks before and after the change. Other lecture style changes had even smaller differences. In addition, we estimated the effect of the start of long breaks on the number of infections and found that they lead to a relatively higher level of infections regardless of lecture styles at the end of semesters. This implies that students are more likely to be infected outside than in class.
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来源期刊
Journal of Disaster Research
Journal of Disaster Research GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
37.50%
发文量
113
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