{"title":"韩国健康成年人 5 年内罹患胃癌的风险预测模型。","authors":"Hyungseok Oh, Sunwoo Cho, Jung Ah Lee, Seungho Ryu, Yoosoo Chang","doi":"10.1007/s10120-024-01488-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although endoscopy is commonly used for gastric cancer screening in South Korea, predictive models that integrate endoscopy results are scarce. We aimed to develop a 5-year gastric cancer risk prediction model using endoscopy results as a predictor.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We developed a predictive model using the cohort data of the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study from 2011 to 2019. Among the 260,407 participants aged ≥20 years who did not have any previous history of cancer, 435 cases of gastric cancer were observed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the predictors and calculate the 5-year risk of gastric cancer. Harrell's C-statistics and Nam-D'Agostino χ<sup>2</sup> test were used to measure the quality of discrimination and calibration ability, respectively.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol consumption, family history of cancer, and previous results for endoscopy in the risk prediction model. This model showed sufficient discrimination ability [development cohort: C-Statistics: 0.800, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.770-0.829; validation cohort: C-Statistics: 0.799, 95% CI 0.743-0.856]. It also performed well with effective calibration (development cohort: χ<sup>2</sup> = 13.65, P = 0.135; validation cohort: χ<sup>2</sup> = 15.57, P = 0.056).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our prediction model, including young adults, showed good discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, this model considered a fixed time interval of 5 years to predict the risk of developing gastric cancer, considering endoscopic results. Thus, it could be clinically useful, especially for adults with endoscopic results.</p>","PeriodicalId":12684,"journal":{"name":"Gastric Cancer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults.\",\"authors\":\"Hyungseok Oh, Sunwoo Cho, Jung Ah Lee, Seungho Ryu, Yoosoo Chang\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10120-024-01488-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Although endoscopy is commonly used for gastric cancer screening in South Korea, predictive models that integrate endoscopy results are scarce. We aimed to develop a 5-year gastric cancer risk prediction model using endoscopy results as a predictor.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We developed a predictive model using the cohort data of the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study from 2011 to 2019. Among the 260,407 participants aged ≥20 years who did not have any previous history of cancer, 435 cases of gastric cancer were observed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the predictors and calculate the 5-year risk of gastric cancer. Harrell's C-statistics and Nam-D'Agostino χ<sup>2</sup> test were used to measure the quality of discrimination and calibration ability, respectively.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol consumption, family history of cancer, and previous results for endoscopy in the risk prediction model. This model showed sufficient discrimination ability [development cohort: C-Statistics: 0.800, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.770-0.829; validation cohort: C-Statistics: 0.799, 95% CI 0.743-0.856]. It also performed well with effective calibration (development cohort: χ<sup>2</sup> = 13.65, P = 0.135; validation cohort: χ<sup>2</sup> = 15.57, P = 0.056).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our prediction model, including young adults, showed good discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, this model considered a fixed time interval of 5 years to predict the risk of developing gastric cancer, considering endoscopic results. Thus, it could be clinically useful, especially for adults with endoscopic results.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12684,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Gastric Cancer\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Gastric Cancer\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10120-024-01488-4\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/4/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Gastric Cancer","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10120-024-01488-4","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/4/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults.
Background: Although endoscopy is commonly used for gastric cancer screening in South Korea, predictive models that integrate endoscopy results are scarce. We aimed to develop a 5-year gastric cancer risk prediction model using endoscopy results as a predictor.
Methods: We developed a predictive model using the cohort data of the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study from 2011 to 2019. Among the 260,407 participants aged ≥20 years who did not have any previous history of cancer, 435 cases of gastric cancer were observed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the predictors and calculate the 5-year risk of gastric cancer. Harrell's C-statistics and Nam-D'Agostino χ2 test were used to measure the quality of discrimination and calibration ability, respectively.
Results: We included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol consumption, family history of cancer, and previous results for endoscopy in the risk prediction model. This model showed sufficient discrimination ability [development cohort: C-Statistics: 0.800, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.770-0.829; validation cohort: C-Statistics: 0.799, 95% CI 0.743-0.856]. It also performed well with effective calibration (development cohort: χ2 = 13.65, P = 0.135; validation cohort: χ2 = 15.57, P = 0.056).
Conclusion: Our prediction model, including young adults, showed good discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, this model considered a fixed time interval of 5 years to predict the risk of developing gastric cancer, considering endoscopic results. Thus, it could be clinically useful, especially for adults with endoscopic results.
期刊介绍:
Gastric Cancer is an esteemed global forum that focuses on various aspects of gastric cancer research, treatment, and biology worldwide.
The journal promotes a diverse range of content, including original articles, case reports, short communications, and technical notes. It also welcomes Letters to the Editor discussing published articles or sharing viewpoints on gastric cancer topics.
Review articles are predominantly sought after by the Editor, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the field.
With a dedicated and knowledgeable editorial team, the journal is committed to providing exceptional support and ensuring high levels of author satisfaction. In fact, over 90% of published authors have expressed their intent to publish again in our esteemed journal.