How Injection History Can Affect Hydraulic Fracturing–Induced Seismicity: Insights from Downhole Monitoring at Preston New Road, United Kingdom

In August 2019, a multistage hydraulic fracturing (HF) operation was carried out at Preston New Road, United Kingdom. HF caused abundant seismic activity that culminated with an ML 2.9 event. The seismic activity was recorded by a downhole array of 12 sensors located in a nearby monitoring well. About 55,556 events were detected and located in real time during the operation by a service company. In this study, we first improve the number of detections by applying template matching and later calculate the moment magnitude of the associated earthquakes. Then we show that by separately analyzing the periods during and immediately after injection, distinct patterns can be identified. We observe an increase in the delay and decrease in amplitude of peak seismicity during subsequent phases of injection. After injection, the seismicity decay can be described by the Omori–Utsu law. The decay rate tends to slow with each successive injection, in particular during the later injection stages. In addition, the frequency–magnitude distribution evolves from a tapered distribution (lack of large events) to a bilinear distribution (excess of large events). This evolution is gradual, with the corner magnitude increasing with each injection. We interpret these patterns as the result of the combined effect of two factors: (1) the stimulated volume becoming increasingly aseismic and (2) the gradual increase in its size, which increases the probability of triggered events on preexisting faults. More generally, these patterns suggest that seismic activity during injection is strongly influenced by the injection history and is modulated by local conditions such as stress state, fault structure, and permeability.