Remote island renewable transition potential: Affordable, reliable and sustainable generation optimisation for Mornington island

Remote islands, comprising over one-sixth of the Earth's surface area and home to approximately 9% of the global population, face formidable challenges in securing affordable, sustainable, and reliable energy. This paper presents a pioneering investigation into Mornington Island's transition from diesel reliance to renewable energy predominance over the next four decades. By demonstrating the tangible benefits of renewable energy implementation on Mornington Island, this research provides compelling simulated evidence that blending traditional and renewable energy sources can revolutionize energy provision for small island communities. Employing hybrid Wind-Solar renewable energy systems bolstered by an effective battery storage system (ESS), this innovative approach ensures a seamless shift to renewable energy, resilient against seasonal variations and extreme weather events such as cyclones. Our analysis, conducted through a tech-economic model simulating each 5% increment of renewable energy penetration, reveals that renewable energy outperforms traditional diesel generation in terms of affordability over a 40-year operational span. Specifically, a 95% renewable energy penetration yields the lowest levelized energy cost ($162.2/MWh), resulting in a remarkable $8.54 million reduction in diesel costs. A 5% diesel component secures annual energy supply, bridging the gap during periods of seasonal renewable energy variability and extreme cyclonic weather. While achieving 100% renewable energy generation is financially feasible, challenges arise in scaling battery capacity to stabilize energy supply during cyclone seasons. Moreover, our carbon accounting model indicates that although the construction of renewable energy infrastructure entails some indirect (Scope 3) carbon emissions, a 95% renewable penetration mitigates emissions by 90% compared to traditional diesel generation, amounting to a reduction of 39.17 kilotons over the 40-year period. This comprehensive study provides policymakers with invaluable insights, fostering a holistic understanding of the financial, technical, environmental, and political dimensions inherent in island energy transitions.