调解、军事和金钱:外部干预结束武装冲突的承诺与陷阱

Dominic Rohner
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引用次数: 8

摘要

战争给社会带来了巨大的代价,如何结束战争是最重要的问题。关于和平协议和第三方干预的书籍和科学文章已达数百篇。在这篇文章中,我提供了一份批判性文献调查,介绍了如果外国希望在国外促进和平,他们可以采取哪些政策。从纯粹的(非军事化)调解,到一系列军事选择,再到经济政策,这些类型的干预措施的承诺和缺陷都根据最前沿的理论和实证文献进行了批判性评估。从中可以得出一系列启示:(i) 事实证明很难确定调解的因果效应;(ii) 只要安全保障、政治和军事力量的分享以及建立信任措施协调得当,军事维和行动就能发挥关键作用;(iii) 金钱很重要--培养人力资本和经济机会有助于为持久和平奠定肥沃的土壤。(JEL C78, D74, D82, F13, F51, F52)
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Mediation, Military, and Money: The Promises and Pitfalls of Outside Interventions to End Armed Conflicts
Wars impose tremendous costs on societies and the question of how to end them is of foremost importance. Several hundred books and scientific articles have been written on peace agreements and third-party interventions. In this article I provide a critical literature survey on what policies foreign countries have at their disposal if they wish to foster peace abroad. Ranging from pure (nonmilitarized) mediation, over a range of military options to economic policies, the promises and pitfalls of these types of interventions are critically assessed in the light of cutting-edge theoretical and empirical literature. A series of take-home messages emerge: (i) establishing a causal effect of mediation has proven difficult; (ii) military peacekeeping operations can play a key role, to the extent that security guarantees, the sharing of political and military power, and trust-building measures are well coordinated; and (iii) money matters—fostering human capital and economic opportunities contributes to fertile ground for lasting peace. (JEL C78, D74, D82, F13, F51, F52)
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