Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China

Abstract. Using the peak ground acceleration (PGA) under four exceedance probabilities calculated via a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method for China, the probability density function of PGA was obtained by fitting with the Cornell seismic hazard exceedance probability PGA function model. Combined with the seismic fragility function of the water supply system calculated on the basis of the empirical matrix of actual earthquake damage and the exposure of fixed assets, the expected seismic loss and expected loss rate models of the water supply system were established, and the classification standard with the expected seismic loss rate of the water supply system as the index was proposed. The seismic fragility of the water supply system was classified, and the exposure of the water supply system was analyzed. The total fixed assets in the Statistical Yearbook of Urban Water Supply, henceforth called Water Supply Yearbook, were taken as the exposure to earthquake in the region. The accuracy of the fragility model in this paper was verified through the actual earthquake damage losses in Deyang. Taking the water supply system of 720 cities in mainland China as an example, the distribution maps of expected seismic loss and expected loss rate were calculated and drawn. The expected loss rate model was verified by the key earthquake prevention areas in mainland China. The assessment model based on the expected loss and expected loss rate was taken as the seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China.