金融危机的因果效应及其对生育率的长期影响

IF 1.1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Economic Record Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI:10.1111/1475-4932.12784

Shao-Hsun Keng

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过一个自然实验来研究 2008 年金融危机对台湾生育率的影响，在这个自然实验中，公共部门的工人因工作保障而不受影响。金融危机通过增加首次生育间隔来减少子女数量，从而导致首次生育概率降低。33-38 岁女性的首次生育概率下降幅度最大，增加了永久无子女的风险。低收入家庭和配偶受教育程度较低的家庭的首次生育间隔时间延长的幅度更大。在 2008 年之后的 9 年中，子女数量和首次生育概率仍然显著下降。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long-Run Impact on Fertility

This paper examines the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on Taiwan's fertility by exploiting a natural experiment in which public-sector workers are unaffected due to job security. The financial crisis reduces the number of children by increasing the first-birth interval, which leads to a lower probability of first birth. Women aged 33–38 experienced the largest decline in the probability of first birth, increasing the risks of permanent childlessness. Low-income households and those with less-educated spouses have a greater increase in the first-birth interval. The number of children and the probability of first birth remain significantly lower 9 years after 2008.

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来源期刊

Economic Record ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

16.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published on behalf of the Economic Society of Australia, the Economic Record is intended to act as a vehicle for the communication of advances in knowledge and understanding in economics. It publishes papers in the theoretical, applied and policy areas of economics and provides a forum for research on the Australian economy. It also publishes surveys in economics and book reviews to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge.