英国脱欧公投后的比特币潜力及价格预测

Ilyasin Aditya Rahman, Rini Dwi Astuti
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在经济波动和地缘政治紧张的世界里,加密货币市场正在成为投资者寻求传统资产替代品的一个机会。作为股票和黄金的替代品,比特币也经历了非同寻常的价格上涨。本研究旨在确定 2016 年金融危机前后的价格走势以及 2024 年的比特币价格预测。本研究使用了 2011 年 1 月至 2024 年 1 月比特币价格的二手数据。使用的方法是 ARCH 和 ARIMA,以确定比特币价格的波动性。对于使用比特币历史数据水平的预测类别。本研究将波动率分为两种计算方法,从 2011 年到 2016 年,最佳模型是 ARIMA 模型,而 2016 年之后到 2024 年,最佳模型是 ARCH 模型。2016 年后至今,出现了许多现象,如中美贸易战、英国退欧(脱欧)等不确定的全球形势。本次研究的结论是,2024 年 2 月至 4 月,一枚比特币的价格将从 43075 涨至 44066,或呈上升趋势。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bitcoin Potential after Brexit Referendum and Price Prediction
In a world of economic volatility and geopolitical tensions, the crypto market is emerging as a opportunity for investors seeking alternatives to traditional assets. Bitcoin also experienced an extraordinary price increase, as an alternative to stocks and gold. The purpose of this study is to determine price movements before and after the 2016 financial crisis as well as bitcoin price predictions in 2024. This study uses secondary data on Bitcoin prices from January 2011 to January 2024. The methods used are ARCH and ARIMA to determine the volatility of the bitcoin price. For predictions using the category of predictors of Bitcoin historical data at the level. In this research divide into two calculations for volatility, from 2011 until 2016 the best model was the ARIMA model, while after 2016 until 2024 the best model was the ARCH. After 2016 until now, there are many phenomena such as uncertain global conditions such as the China-US trade war and British Exit (Brexit). The conclusion on this research about the price of one Bitcoin coin in 2024 February until April from 43,075 to 44,066 or uptrend.
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