Impact of non-tariff measures on the survival of China's fresh fruit exports

Using data at the HS-6 product level, this study presents evidence on the export survival of China's fresh fruit during the period 2002–2019, and identifies the impact of non-tariff measures (NTMs) on the hazard rate of trade disruption. The results show that the average length of 2239 trade spells is 5.16 years. Notably, 67.04 per cent of these spells are no more than three years long, whereas only 7.95 per cent are more than 18 years long. Compared with major fruit-exporting countries, the trade spell distribution of China's fresh fruit exports lacks advantages. The hazard rate can reach 0.41 in the first year of export and is negatively duration dependent. The implementation of NTMs by importing countries has significantly increased the hazard rate. The positive effect of NTMs on the hazard rate is primarily driven by non-technical measures. Notably, technical barriers to trade measures decrease the export hazard rate of China's fresh fruits with comparative advantages, because these measures focus on product quality. Meanwhile, non-technical measures increase the export hazard rate of such fruits; this may be because of the possible shock on the relevant fruit industry in the destination market.