Eldar Kurbanov, O. Vorobev, Sergei Lezhnin, D. Dergunov, Jinliang Wang, Jinming Sha, Aleksandr Gubaev, Ludmila Tarasova, Yibo Wang
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引用次数: 0
摘要
野火是林分动态的重要自然驱动力,对林分的自然再生有很大影响,并提供重要的生态系统服务。本文利用遥感时间序列数据,并考虑到气候因素对森林火灾的影响,对 2000 年至 2022 年俄罗斯联邦伏尔加河中游地区的时空烧毁面积(BA)模式进行了全面分析。为评估时间趋势,使用谷歌地球平台(GEE)上的 LandTrendr 算法进行了 Mann-Kendall 非参数统计检验和 Theil-Sen 斜率估计。精度评估结果显示,以 581 个参考测试点为评估对象,森林烧毁面积检测的总体精度(>84%)和 F 分数(>82%)都很高。结果表明,该地区的火灾发生主要是不定期的,22 年间的最高频率记录为 7.3 次。据估计,森林 BA 总面积约为 28 万公顷,占伏尔加河中游地区陆地面积的 1.7%,或森林总面积的 4.0%。针叶林是最容易发生火灾的生态系统,占 BA 总面积的 59.0%,落叶林占 25.1%。幼林和灌木林的火灾发生率较低。在季节尺度上,与降水和风速相比,温度对 BA 的影响更大。
Temporal and Spatial Analyses of Forest Burnt Area in the Middle Volga Region Based on Satellite Imagery and Climatic Factors
Wildfires are important natural drivers of forest stands dynamics, strongly affecting their natural regeneration and providing important ecosystem services. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal burnt area (BA) patterns in the Middle Volga region of the Russian Federation from 2000 to 2022, using remote sensing time series data and considering the influence of climatic factors on forest fires. To assess the temporal trends, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric statistical test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator were applied using the LandTrendr algorithm on the Google Earth Platform (GEE). The accuracy assessment revealed a high overall accuracy (>84%) and F-score value (>82%) for forest burnt area detection, evaluated against 581 reference test sites. The results indicate that fire occurrences in the region were predominantly irregular, with the highest frequency recorded as 7.3 over the 22-year period. The total forest BA was estimated to be around 280 thousand hectares, accounting for 1.7% of the land surface area or 4.0% of the total forested area in the Middle Volga region. Coniferous forest stands were found to be the most fire-prone ecosystems, contributing to 59.0% of the total BA, while deciduous stands accounted for 25.1%. Insignificant fire occurrences were observed in young forests and shrub lands. On a seasonal scale, temperature was found to have a greater impact on BA compared with precipitation and wind speed.
ClimateEarth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
5.40%
发文量
172
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍:
Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.