美元的帝国圈
IF 3.3
2区 经济学
Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
引用次数: 0
摘要
在本文中，我们强调了一种新的渠道，通过这种渠道，美元波动可以成为一种自我实现的顺周期力量。我们将这一机制称为 "帝国圈"（Imperial Circle），因为它使美元成为当前国际货币体系中占主导地位的宏观经济变量。其核心在于，美国 "实体 "经济受全球发展影响的程度不断降低，而美元在全球的作用却日益增强，两者之间存在着根本的不对称。美元升值导致全球经济活动减少，这反过来又使美元本身相对受益，强化了最初的升值及其影响。本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。
The Dollar’s Imperial Circle
In this paper, we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism Imperial Circle as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core of it, there is a fundamental asymmetry between the shrinking exposure of the “real” US economy to global developments versus the growing global role of the US dollar. Dollar appreciation leads to a decline in global economic activity, which in turn benefits, in relative terms, the dollar itself, reinforcing the initial appreciation and its effects.
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来源期刊
Imf Economic Review
Multiple-
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
4.70%
发文量
39
期刊介绍：
The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome.
The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein.
Comments
“The IMF Economic Review has been uniquely successful in publishing papers that rigorously analyze real international macroeconomic problems and in a manner that has immediate policy relevance. This success is owed to a great extent to the high quality of the editorial board, which is able to identify papers that are both relevant for policy and are executed using state-of-the-art tools so as to make the analysis compelling.” - Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF
“IMF Economic Review is devoted to state-of-the-art research on the global economy. Given the Fund''s unique position on the front lines of surveillance and crisis management, anyone interested in international economic policy or in macroeconomics more generally will find this journal to be essential reading.” - Maurice Obstfeld, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, IMF
“There is great need for a rigorous academic publication that addresses the key global macro questions of our times. This is what the IMF Economic Review aims to be.” - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Professor of Economics at University of California, Berkeley; and former Editor of the IMF Economic Review
“To navigate the global crisis, and to take the best policy decisions, will require mobilizing and extending the knowledge we have about open economy macro, from the implications of liquidity traps, to the dangers of large fiscal deficits, to macro-financial interactions, to the contours of a better international monetary and financial system. My hope and my expectation is that the IMF Economic Review will be central to the effort.” - Olivier J. Blanchard, Peterson Institute for International Economics; former Economic Counsellor and Director of Research Department, IMF
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