基于简单遗传算法(SGA)的台风模拟物理参数化方案组合优化

IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Zebin Lu, Jianjun Xu, Zhiqiang Chen, Jinyi Yang, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin Leung, Daosheng Xu, Banglin Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

数值天气预报(NWP)系统中的每个物理过程可能有许多不同的参数化方案。早期的研究表明,不同物理参数化方案的性能随模拟的天气情况而变化。因此,有必要根据天气系统的变化选择合适的物理参数化方案组合。然而,要在数百万个可能的参数化方案组合中找出一个最佳组合相当困难。本研究将简单遗传算法(SGA)应用于台风预报 NWP 模式中参数化方案的优化组合。通过使用天气研究和预报(WRF)模型模拟台风 "木槿"(2015 年)和使用海洋-大气-波浪-沉积物传输耦合(COAWST)建模系统模拟台风 "黑格"(2020 年),验证了 SGA 的可行性。结果表明,SGA 可以有效地获得最优方案组合。对于台风 "木槿"(2015 年),只需运行 488 次试验,就能从 1,304,576 种可能的组合中找到最佳组合。台风 "黑格斯"(2020 年)也有类似的结果。与 COAWST 模式系统提出的默认组合相比,最优组合方案显著提高了台风路径和强度的模拟效果。本研究为寻找WRF和COAWST物理参数化方案的最优组合提供了一种可行的方法,以实现更精确的台风模拟。这有助于为未来NWP模式的发展提供参考,也有助于分析不同物理过程参数化方案在特定天气背景下的协调性和适应性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Combinatorial Optimization of Physics Parameterization Schemes for Typhoon Simulation Based on a Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA)

Each physical process in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system may have many different parameterization schemes. Early studies have shown that the performance of different physical parameterization schemes varies with the weather situation to be simulated. Thus, it is necessary to select a suitable combination of physical parameterization schemes according to the variation of weather systems. However, it is rather difficult to identify an optimal combination among millions of possible parameterization scheme combinations. This study applied a simple genetic algorithm (SGA) to optimizing the combination of parameterization schemes in NWP models for typhoon forecasting. The feasibility of SGA was verified with the simulation of Typhoon Mujigae (2015) by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Typhoon Higos (2020) by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system. The results show that SGA can efficiently obtain the optimal combination of schemes. For Typhoon Mujigae (2015), the optimal combination can be found from the 1,304,576 possible combinations by running only 488 trials. Similar results can be obtained for Typhoon Higos (2020). Compared to the default combination proposed by the COAWST model system, the optimal combination scheme significantly improves the simulation of typhoon track and intensity. This study provides a feasible way to search for the optimal combinations of physical parameterization schemes in WRF and COAWST for more accurate typhoon simulation. This can help provide references for future development of NWP models, and for analyzing the coordination and adaptability of different physical process parameterization schemes under specific weather backgrounds.

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来源期刊
Journal of Meteorological Research
Journal of Meteorological Research METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
6.20%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: Journal of Meteorological Research (previously known as Acta Meteorologica Sinica) publishes the latest achievements and developments in the field of atmospheric sciences. Coverage is broad, including topics such as pure and applied meteorology; climatology and climate change; marine meteorology; atmospheric physics and chemistry; cloud physics and weather modification; numerical weather prediction; data assimilation; atmospheric sounding and remote sensing; atmospheric environment and air pollution; radar and satellite meteorology; agricultural and forest meteorology and more.
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