Yousra Trichilli, Hana Kharrat, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes
{"title":"法定货币真的能对冲黄金价格吗?基于范围的 DCC 模型提供的证据","authors":"Yousra Trichilli, Hana Kharrat, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes","doi":"10.1108/emjb-03-2023-0085","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\n<p>This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax gold as a diversifier and hedge asset.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\n<p>This paper examines the volatility spillover between Pax gold and fiat currencies using the framework of wavelet analysis, BEKK-GARCH models and Range DCC-GARCH. Moreover, this paper proposes to use the covariance and variance structure obtained from the new range DCC-GARCH framework to estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios, the optimal weighs and the hedging effectiveness.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Findings</h3>\n<p>Wavelet coherence method reveals that, at low frequency, large zone of co-movements appears for the pairs Pax gold/EUR, Pax gold/JPY and Pax gold/RUB. Further, the BEKK results show unidirectional (bidirectional) transmission effects between Pax gold and EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY (INR, RUB) fiat currencies. Moreover, the Range DCC results show that the Pax gold and the fiat currency returns are weakly correlated with low coefficients close to zero. Thus, Pax gold seems to serve as a safe haven asset against the systematic risk of fiat currency markets. In addition, the results of optimal weights show that rational investor should invest more in Pax gold and less in fiat currencies. Concerning the hedge ratios results, the findings reveal that the INR (JPY) fiat currency appears to be the most expensive (cheapest) hedge for the Pax-gold market. However, the JPY’s fiat currency appears to be the cheapest one. As for hedging effectiveness results, the authors found that hedging strategies including fiat currencies–Pax gold pairs are most likely to sharply decrease the portfolio’s risk.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\n<p>A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Pax Gold and fiat currencies is crucial for refining portfolio strategies involving cryptocurrencies. This research underscores the significance of grasping volatility transmissions between these currencies, providing valuable insights to guide investors in their decision-making processes. Moreover, it encourages further exploration into the interdependencies of digital currencies. Additionally, this study sheds light on effective contagion risk management, particularly during crises such as Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It underscores the role of Pax Gold as a safe-haven asset and offers practical guidance for adjusting portfolios across various economic conditions. Ultimately, this research advances our comprehension of Pax Gold’s risk-return profile, positioning it as a potential hedge during periods of uncertainty, thereby contributing to the evolving literature on cryptocurrencies.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\n<h3>Originality/value</h3>\n<p>This study’s primary value lies in its pioneering empirical examination of the time-varying correlations and scale dependence between Pax Gold and fiat currencies. It goes beyond by determining optimal time-varying hedge ratios through the innovative Range-DCC-GARCH model, originally introduced by Molnár (2016) and distinguished by its incorporation of both low and high prices. Significantly, this analysis unfolds within the unique context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, marking a novel contribution to the field.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":46475,"journal":{"name":"EuroMed Journal of Business","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Can fiat currencies really hedge Pax gold? Evidence from range-based DCC models\",\"authors\":\"Yousra Trichilli, Hana Kharrat, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes\",\"doi\":\"10.1108/emjb-03-2023-0085\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Purpose</h3>\\n<p>This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax gold as a diversifier and hedge asset.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\\n<p>This paper examines the volatility spillover between Pax gold and fiat currencies using the framework of wavelet analysis, BEKK-GARCH models and Range DCC-GARCH. Moreover, this paper proposes to use the covariance and variance structure obtained from the new range DCC-GARCH framework to estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios, the optimal weighs and the hedging effectiveness.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Findings</h3>\\n<p>Wavelet coherence method reveals that, at low frequency, large zone of co-movements appears for the pairs Pax gold/EUR, Pax gold/JPY and Pax gold/RUB. Further, the BEKK results show unidirectional (bidirectional) transmission effects between Pax gold and EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY (INR, RUB) fiat currencies. Moreover, the Range DCC results show that the Pax gold and the fiat currency returns are weakly correlated with low coefficients close to zero. Thus, Pax gold seems to serve as a safe haven asset against the systematic risk of fiat currency markets. In addition, the results of optimal weights show that rational investor should invest more in Pax gold and less in fiat currencies. Concerning the hedge ratios results, the findings reveal that the INR (JPY) fiat currency appears to be the most expensive (cheapest) hedge for the Pax-gold market. However, the JPY’s fiat currency appears to be the cheapest one. As for hedging effectiveness results, the authors found that hedging strategies including fiat currencies–Pax gold pairs are most likely to sharply decrease the portfolio’s risk.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\\n<h3>Practical implications</h3>\\n<p>A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Pax Gold and fiat currencies is crucial for refining portfolio strategies involving cryptocurrencies. This research underscores the significance of grasping volatility transmissions between these currencies, providing valuable insights to guide investors in their decision-making processes. Moreover, it encourages further exploration into the interdependencies of digital currencies. Additionally, this study sheds light on effective contagion risk management, particularly during crises such as Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It underscores the role of Pax Gold as a safe-haven asset and offers practical guidance for adjusting portfolios across various economic conditions. 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Can fiat currencies really hedge Pax gold? Evidence from range-based DCC models
Purpose
This paper assesses the co-movement between Pax gold and six fiat currencies. It also investigates the optimal time-varying hedge ratios in order to examine the properties of Pax gold as a diversifier and hedge asset.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper examines the volatility spillover between Pax gold and fiat currencies using the framework of wavelet analysis, BEKK-GARCH models and Range DCC-GARCH. Moreover, this paper proposes to use the covariance and variance structure obtained from the new range DCC-GARCH framework to estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios, the optimal weighs and the hedging effectiveness.
Findings
Wavelet coherence method reveals that, at low frequency, large zone of co-movements appears for the pairs Pax gold/EUR, Pax gold/JPY and Pax gold/RUB. Further, the BEKK results show unidirectional (bidirectional) transmission effects between Pax gold and EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY (INR, RUB) fiat currencies. Moreover, the Range DCC results show that the Pax gold and the fiat currency returns are weakly correlated with low coefficients close to zero. Thus, Pax gold seems to serve as a safe haven asset against the systematic risk of fiat currency markets. In addition, the results of optimal weights show that rational investor should invest more in Pax gold and less in fiat currencies. Concerning the hedge ratios results, the findings reveal that the INR (JPY) fiat currency appears to be the most expensive (cheapest) hedge for the Pax-gold market. However, the JPY’s fiat currency appears to be the cheapest one. As for hedging effectiveness results, the authors found that hedging strategies including fiat currencies–Pax gold pairs are most likely to sharply decrease the portfolio’s risk.
Practical implications
A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Pax Gold and fiat currencies is crucial for refining portfolio strategies involving cryptocurrencies. This research underscores the significance of grasping volatility transmissions between these currencies, providing valuable insights to guide investors in their decision-making processes. Moreover, it encourages further exploration into the interdependencies of digital currencies. Additionally, this study sheds light on effective contagion risk management, particularly during crises such as Covid-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It underscores the role of Pax Gold as a safe-haven asset and offers practical guidance for adjusting portfolios across various economic conditions. Ultimately, this research advances our comprehension of Pax Gold’s risk-return profile, positioning it as a potential hedge during periods of uncertainty, thereby contributing to the evolving literature on cryptocurrencies.
Originality/value
This study’s primary value lies in its pioneering empirical examination of the time-varying correlations and scale dependence between Pax Gold and fiat currencies. It goes beyond by determining optimal time-varying hedge ratios through the innovative Range-DCC-GARCH model, originally introduced by Molnár (2016) and distinguished by its incorporation of both low and high prices. Significantly, this analysis unfolds within the unique context of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, marking a novel contribution to the field.
期刊介绍:
The EuroMed Journal of Business (EMJB) is the premier publication facilitating dialogue among researchers from Europe and the Mediterranean. It plays a vital role in generating and disseminating knowledge about various business environments and trends in this region. By offering an up-to-date overview of emerging business practices in specific countries, EMJB serves as a valuable resource for its readers.
As the official journal of the EuroMed Academy of Business, EMJB is committed to reflecting the economic growth seen in the European-Mediterranean region. It aims to be a focused and targeted business journal, highlighting environmental opportunities, threats, and marketplace developments in the area. Through its efforts, EMJB promotes collaboration and open dialogue among diverse research cultures and practices.
EMJB serves as a platform for debating and disseminating research findings, new research areas and techniques, conceptual developments, and practical applications across various business segments. It seeks to provide a forum for discussing new ideas in business, including theory, practice, and the issues that arise within the field.