{"title":"国际贸易实力帕累托分布的理论基础及国际贸易预测公式介绍","authors":"Mikrajuddin Abdullah","doi":"10.1007/s11293-024-09790-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A theoretical foundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate of change of trade strength was developed. These two quantities were found to satisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed using data from the World Integrated Trade Solution and the World Bank by comparing the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion to five types of distribution functions (exponential, lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). Furthermore, the fitted Pareto power parameter is quite similar to the theoretical prediction. The developed distribution function is expected to be useful in forecasting international trade in countries and global economics, enabling the implementation of optimal policies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46061,"journal":{"name":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","volume":"52 1","pages":"17 - 29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Theoretical Foundation for the Pareto Distribution of International Trade Strength and Introduction of an Equation for International Trade Forecasting\",\"authors\":\"Mikrajuddin Abdullah\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11293-024-09790-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>A theoretical foundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate of change of trade strength was developed. These two quantities were found to satisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed using data from the World Integrated Trade Solution and the World Bank by comparing the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion to five types of distribution functions (exponential, lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). Furthermore, the fitted Pareto power parameter is quite similar to the theoretical prediction. The developed distribution function is expected to be useful in forecasting international trade in countries and global economics, enabling the implementation of optimal policies.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46061,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL\",\"volume\":\"52 1\",\"pages\":\"17 - 29\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11293-024-09790-3\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ATLANTIC ECONOMIC JOURNAL","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11293-024-09790-3","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Theoretical Foundation for the Pareto Distribution of International Trade Strength and Introduction of an Equation for International Trade Forecasting
A theoretical foundation for predicting the distribution of trade strength and the rate of change of trade strength was developed. These two quantities were found to satisfy the Pareto distribution function. The equations were confirmed using data from the World Integrated Trade Solution and the World Bank by comparing the Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion to five types of distribution functions (exponential, lognormal, gamma, Pareto, and Weibull). Furthermore, the fitted Pareto power parameter is quite similar to the theoretical prediction. The developed distribution function is expected to be useful in forecasting international trade in countries and global economics, enabling the implementation of optimal policies.
期刊介绍：
The Atlantic Economic Journal (AEJ) has an international reputation for excellent articles in all interest areas, without regard to fields or methodological preferences. Founded in 1973 by the International Atlantic Economic Society, a need was identified for increased communication among scholars from different countries. For over 30 years, the AEJ has continuously sought articles that traced some of the most critical economic changes and developments to occur on the global level. The journal''s goal is to facilitate and synthesize economic research across nations to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas and scholarly research. Contributors include some of the world''s most respected economists and financial specialists, including Nobel laureates and leading government officials. AEJ welcomes both theoretical and empirical articles, as well as public policy papers. All manuscripts are submitted to a double-blind peer review process. In addition to formal publication of full-length articles, the AEJ provides an opportunity for less formal communication through its Anthology section. A small point may not be worthy of a full-length, formal paper but is important enough to warrant dissemination to other researchers. Research in progress may be of interest to other scholars in the field. A research approach ending in negative results needs to be shared to save others similar pitfalls. The Anthology section has been established to facilitate these forms of communication. Anthologies provide a means by which short manuscripts of less than 500 words can quickly appear in the AEJ. All submissions are formally reviewed by the Board of Editors. Officially cited as: Atl Econ J
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