Nomogram Predicting Grade ≥2 Acute Radiation Enteritis in Patients With Cervical Cancer Receiving Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy.

Objective: To analyze the risk factors for grade ≥2 ARE in patients with cervical cancer receiving concurrent chemoradiotherapy.

Methods: A total of 273 patients with cervical cancer receiving concurrent chemoradiotherapy at our hospital were retrospectively enrolled. The patients were divided into training and validation groups. Clinical parameters were analyzed using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram model was established based on the independent risk factors selected using multivariate logistic regression. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram. The patients were divided into low-score and high-score groups based on the scores calculated using the nomogram model and compared.

Results: Malnutrition, monocyte-lymphocyte ratio ≥0.82 after radiotherapy, platelet-lymphocyte ratio <307.50 after radiotherapy, and bowelbag volume receiving at least 5 and 40 Gy were independent risk factors for grade ≥2 ARE and were incorporated into the nomogram ( P <0.05). The ROC curve, calibration curve, and DCA suggested that the nomogram had good discrimination, concordance, and net benefit in the clinical. A medium nomogram score of 146.50 points was used as the cutoff point, and the incidence of grade ≥2 ARE in the high-score group was higher than that in the low-score group ( P <0.05).

Conclusion: The nomogram model for grade ≥2 ARE has good predictive ability and clinical utility, and is convenient for clinicians to identify high-risk groups and develop early prevention and treatment strategies.