Predictors of tree damage and survival in agroforests after major cyclone disturbance in Fiji

Abstract

This study explores the resilience and damage dynamics of agroforests, a critically important yet understudied agroecological system, in the aftermath of Category-5 Cyclone Winston in Fiji. As agroforestry gains prominence globally as a versatile production system able to support agrobiodiversity and food security for climate resilience, understanding the characteristics that contribute to its resistance and resilience to disturbance becomes increasingly important. Here we examine the effects of individual and species-specific traits, and management (planted and fallow vs forest areas) on the probability of tree stem survival and damage, and discuss the resistant and resilient qualities of trees and management actions in these systems. We found that the probability of post-cyclone survival increased as a function of wood density, irrespective of management type. Damage severity increased with tree size (diameter at breast height). Some of the species with the highest wood density were native trees, emphasizing the role of native species in agroforests, and the value of agroforests to conservation. Overall, agroforest trees experienced relatively low stem mortality (12.2%), suggesting that these agroforests may resist extreme disturbances despite their potential vulnerabilities such as landscape edge effects and altered species compositions. Our study provides insight into the potential of agroforests as resilient agroecological systems capable of withstanding escalating cyclone intensities, and the role of effective management strategies for fostering resilience amid a rapidly changing climate.