CMIP6 模型对越南胡志明市年降雨量的历史趋势和未来预测

IF 1.2 4区地球科学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Research Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI:10.3354/cr01736

Dang Nguyen Dong Phuong, Nguyen Duc Vu, Nguyen Kim Loi

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要：气候风险对生活在全球低洼沿海大城市（包括越南胡志明市）的许多当地社区构成了重大威胁。因此，本研究首先旨在通过多种非参数统计趋势检验，全面了解胡志明市过去 40 年（1980-2022 年）年降雨量和绝对极端降雨量的时间趋势模式。我们根据最新的耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段（CMIP6）在 8 种共同的社会经济路径（SSP）温室气体排放情景下的输出结果，采用量子三角映射（QDM）方法开发了经偏差校正的日降雨量数据。对模型性能的评估是通过依次重复省略 5 个连续年份来估算测试误差。结果表明，经过良好校准的传递函数，即使是高量值传递函数，在生成未来降雨情景时也具有很高的适用性。年降雨量和绝对极值的预测变化是通过估算 CMIP6 模型在未来时期（即 2021-2040、2041-2060、2061-2080 和 2081-2100）的多模型中值得出的，并参考了基期（1995-2014）。总体而言，胡志明市的年降雨量预计将大幅增加，其中 Thu Duc 站的年降雨量增幅最大。预计到 21 世纪末，高端情景（即 SSP5-8.5）下的变化约为 30.9%（8.3%-77.8%）。预计这些研究结果将为胡志明市减轻与气候有关的风险提供一些可靠的论据。

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Historical trends and future projections of annual rainfall from CMIP6 models in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

ABSTRACT: Climate risks have posed a major threat to many local communities living in low-lying coastal megacities across the globe, including Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Hence, this study first aimed to contribute towards a comprehensive understanding of temporal trend patterns of annual rainfall and absolute extremes in Ho Chi Minh City over the last 4 decades (1980-2022) through multiple non-parametric statistical trend tests. We employed the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method to develop daily bias-corrected rainfall data based on the outputs in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under 8 shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Evaluation of model performance was implemented by repeatedly omitting 5 successive years in turn for estimating testing errors. The outcomes indicate the high applicability of well-calibrated transfer functions, even for high quantiles, to the production of future rainfall scenarios. The projected changes in annual rainfall and absolute extremes were obtained by estimating multi-model medians from CMIP6 models for future periods (i.e. 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100), with reference to the base period (1995-2014). In general, annual rainfall in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to increase substantially, and Thu Duc station consistently shows the highest increases in annual rainfall. Projected changes are approximately 30.9% (8.3 to 77.8%) under the high-end scenario (i.e. SSP5-8.5) by the end of the 21st century. It is expected that these findings will yield several solid arguments for mitigating climate-related risks in Ho Chi Minh City.

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来源期刊

Climate Research 地学-环境科学

CiteScore

2.90

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

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