Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

Objectives

This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

Design

We conducted a retrospective study on women with GDM who gave birth at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, between November 2017 and July 2021. We divided 1879 patients into a development set (n = 1346) and a validation set (n = 533). The development set was used to construct the prediction model for preterm birth using the stepwise logistic regression model. A nomogram and a web calculator were established based on the model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both sets.

Patients and Measurements

Patients were women with GDM. Data were collected from medical records. GDM was diagnosed with 75-g oral glucose tolerance test during 24-28 gestational weeks. Preterm birth was definied as gestational age at birth <37 weeks.

Results

The incidence of preterm birth was 9.4%. The predictive model included age, assisted reproductive technology, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, reproductive system inflammation, intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy, high-density lipoprotein, homocysteine, and fasting blood glucose of 75-g oral glucose tolerance test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the development and validation sets was 0.722 and 0.632, respectively. The model has been adequately calibrated using a calibration curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, demonstrating a correlation between the predicted and observed risk.

Conclusion

This study presents a novel, validated risk model for preterm birth in pregnant women with GDM, providing an individualized risk estimation using clinical risk factors in the third trimester of pregnancy.