地缘政治风险对转型经济体外国直接投资的影响:越南的证据

L. Truong, H. Friday, Tan Duy Pham
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摘要

外国直接投资(FDI)是发达国家和发展中国家经济发展的主要驱动力。了解和洞察促使外国直接投资增加的因素对学术界和政策制定者都非常重要。跨国公司在做出外国直接投资决策时考虑的一个关键因素是地缘政治风险(GPR)。因此,本研究致力于调查地缘政治风险对越南外国直接投资的短期和长期影响。本研究使用的数据为 1986 年至 2021 年期间的年度地缘政治风险指数、外国直接投资和其他控制变量。利用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法,实证结果证实,地缘政治风险(GPR)对越南的外国直接投资具有显著的长期负面影响。具体而言,从长期来看,地缘政治风险指数每增加 1%,越南的外国直接投资就会减少 5.7983%。此外,ARDL 模型得出的结果表明,在短期内,GPR 对滞后一年的外国直接投资有显著的正向影响,这意味着 GPR 指数的增加会导致外国直接投资的增加。此外,误差修正模型(ECM)得出的结果表明,42.89%的上年不平衡在当年收敛并修正回长期均衡。根据研究结果,为决策者提供了一些政策启示,以减轻 GPR 对外国直接投资的负面影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Effects of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Direct Investment in a Transition Economy: Evidence from Vietnam
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a key driver of economic development of both developed and developing countries. Understanding and having insights into the factors that motivate increased FDI arevery important for both academics and policy makers. A key factor that multinationals incorporate in their decisions on FDI is geopolitical risk (GPR). Therefore, this study is devotedto investigating the short-term and long-term effects of GPR on FDI in Vietnam. Data used in this study are the yearly geopolitical risk index, FDI, and other control variables covering the period from 1986 to 2021. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical results confirm that geopolitical risk (GPR) has a significantly negative effect on FDI in Vietnam in the longterm. Specifically, in the longterm, 1 percent increase in the GPR index is associated with 5.7983 percent decrease in Vietnam’s FDI. In addition, the results derived from the ARDL model indicate that in the shortterm, GPR has a significantly positive effect on the FDI for the one-year lag, meaning that an increase in the GPR index leads to an increase in FDI. Moreover, the results derived from the error correction model (ECM) indicate that 42.89% of the disequilibria from the previous year are converged and corrected back to the long-run equilibrium in the current year. Based on the findings, some policy implications are drawn for policymakers to mitigate the negative effects of GPR on FDI.
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