{"title":"利用地表速度和海拔观测数据验证乌珀纳维-伊斯特拉姆的历史模拟集合(1985-2019 年","authors":"Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Jérémie Mouginot, Romain Millan","doi":"10.1017/jog.2024.10","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation.</p>","PeriodicalId":15981,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Glaciology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation\",\"authors\":\"Eliot Jager, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Jérémie Mouginot, Romain Millan\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/jog.2024.10\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15981,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Glaciology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Glaciology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Glaciology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation
The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Glaciology publishes original scientific articles and letters in any aspect of glaciology- the study of ice. Studies of natural, artificial, and extraterrestrial ice and snow, as well as interactions between ice, snow and the atmospheric, oceanic and subglacial environment are all eligible. They may be based on field work, remote sensing, laboratory investigations, theoretical analysis or numerical modelling, or may report on newly developed glaciological instruments. Subjects covered recently in the Journal have included palaeoclimatology and the chemistry of the atmosphere as revealed in ice cores; theoretical and applied physics and chemistry of ice; the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in their extent and mass under climatic forcing; glacier energy balances at all scales; glacial landforms, and glaciers as geomorphic agents; snow science in all its aspects; ice as a host for surface and subglacial ecosystems; sea ice, icebergs and lake ice; and avalanche dynamics and other glacial hazards to human activity. Studies of permafrost and of ice in the Earth’s atmosphere are also within the domain of the Journal, as are interdisciplinary applications to engineering, biological, and social sciences, and studies in the history of glaciology.