{"title":"页岩革命与石油市场的动力","authors":"Nathan S Balke, Xin Jin, Mine Yücel","doi":"10.1093/ej/ueae013","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8 to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find OPEC Core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.","PeriodicalId":501319,"journal":{"name":"The Economic Journal","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market\",\"authors\":\"Nathan S Balke, Xin Jin, Mine Yücel\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/ej/ueae013\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8 to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find OPEC Core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501319,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"The Economic Journal\",\"volume\":\"28 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"The Economic Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae013\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"The Economic Journal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae013","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market
We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8 to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find OPEC Core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.
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