{"title":"改进后的安提凯希拉（Antikythera）装置日历环孔计数法","authors":"Graham Woan, Joseph Bayley","doi":"arxiv-2403.00040","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We present a new analysis of the positions of holes beneath the calendar ring\nof the Antikythera mechanism, as measured by Budiselic et al. (2020). We\nsignificantly refine their estimate for the number of holes that were present\nin the full ring. Our $68\\%$-credible estimate for this number, taking account\nof all the data, is $355.24^{ +1.39 }_{ -1.36 }$. If holes adjacent to\nfractures are removed from the analysis, our estimate becomes $354.08^{\n+1.47}_{-1.41}$. A ring of 360 holes is strongly disfavoured, and one of 365\nholes is not plausible, given our model assumptions.","PeriodicalId":501042,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - PHYS - History and Philosophy of Physics","volume":"86 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An improved calendar ring hole-count for the Antikythera mechanism\",\"authors\":\"Graham Woan, Joseph Bayley\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2403.00040\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We present a new analysis of the positions of holes beneath the calendar ring\\nof the Antikythera mechanism, as measured by Budiselic et al. (2020). We\\nsignificantly refine their estimate for the number of holes that were present\\nin the full ring. Our $68\\\\%$-credible estimate for this number, taking account\\nof all the data, is $355.24^{ +1.39 }_{ -1.36 }$. If holes adjacent to\\nfractures are removed from the analysis, our estimate becomes $354.08^{\\n+1.47}_{-1.41}$. A ring of 360 holes is strongly disfavoured, and one of 365\\nholes is not plausible, given our model assumptions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501042,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - PHYS - History and Philosophy of Physics\",\"volume\":\"86 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - PHYS - History and Philosophy of Physics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2403.00040\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - PHYS - History and Philosophy of Physics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2403.00040","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
An improved calendar ring hole-count for the Antikythera mechanism
We present a new analysis of the positions of holes beneath the calendar ring
of the Antikythera mechanism, as measured by Budiselic et al. (2020). We
significantly refine their estimate for the number of holes that were present
in the full ring. Our $68\%$-credible estimate for this number, taking account
of all the data, is $355.24^{ +1.39 }_{ -1.36 }$. If holes adjacent to
fractures are removed from the analysis, our estimate becomes $354.08^{
+1.47}_{-1.41}$. A ring of 360 holes is strongly disfavoured, and one of 365
holes is not plausible, given our model assumptions.
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