{"title":"标准普尔 500 指数每日回报波动的合理性","authors":"Hayden Brown","doi":"arxiv-2403.01088","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 60 years, there has been a gradual increase in the volatility\nof daily returns for the S&P 500 Index. Hypothetically, suppose that market\nforces determine daily volatility such that a daily leveraged S&P 500 fund\ncannot outperform a standard S&P 500 fund in the long run. Then this\nhypothetical volatility happens to support the increase in volatility seen in\nthe S&P 500 index. On this basis, it appears that the classic argument of the\nmarket portfolio being unbeatable in the long run is determining the volatility\nof S&P 500 daily returns. Moreover, it follows that the long-term volatility of\nthe daily returns for the S&P 500 Index should continue to increase until\npassing a particular threshold. If, on the other hand, this hypothesis about\nmarket forces increasing volatility is invalid, then there is room for daily\nleveraged S&P 500 funds to outperform their unleveraged counterparts in the\nlong run.","PeriodicalId":501084,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Mathematical Finance","volume":"63 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Justifying the Volatility of S&P 500 Daily Returns\",\"authors\":\"Hayden Brown\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2403.01088\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Over the past 60 years, there has been a gradual increase in the volatility\\nof daily returns for the S&P 500 Index. Hypothetically, suppose that market\\nforces determine daily volatility such that a daily leveraged S&P 500 fund\\ncannot outperform a standard S&P 500 fund in the long run. Then this\\nhypothetical volatility happens to support the increase in volatility seen in\\nthe S&P 500 index. On this basis, it appears that the classic argument of the\\nmarket portfolio being unbeatable in the long run is determining the volatility\\nof S&P 500 daily returns. Moreover, it follows that the long-term volatility of\\nthe daily returns for the S&P 500 Index should continue to increase until\\npassing a particular threshold. If, on the other hand, this hypothesis about\\nmarket forces increasing volatility is invalid, then there is room for daily\\nleveraged S&P 500 funds to outperform their unleveraged counterparts in the\\nlong run.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501084,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Mathematical Finance\",\"volume\":\"63 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Mathematical Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2403.01088\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - QuantFin - Mathematical Finance","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2403.01088","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Justifying the Volatility of S&P 500 Daily Returns
Over the past 60 years, there has been a gradual increase in the volatility
of daily returns for the S&P 500 Index. Hypothetically, suppose that market
forces determine daily volatility such that a daily leveraged S&P 500 fund
cannot outperform a standard S&P 500 fund in the long run. Then this
hypothetical volatility happens to support the increase in volatility seen in
the S&P 500 index. On this basis, it appears that the classic argument of the
market portfolio being unbeatable in the long run is determining the volatility
of S&P 500 daily returns. Moreover, it follows that the long-term volatility of
the daily returns for the S&P 500 Index should continue to increase until
passing a particular threshold. If, on the other hand, this hypothesis about
market forces increasing volatility is invalid, then there is room for daily
leveraged S&P 500 funds to outperform their unleveraged counterparts in the
long run.