气候变化对水-能源-粮食关系影响的调查:一种新的数学编程方法

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 农业是世界上最重要的生产部门之一。水和能源是粮食生产的两项基本投入。农业部门受气候变化的影响最大。为此,本研究旨在提出一种新的数学编程方法,以研究气候变化对水-能源-粮食(WEF)关系的影响。为伊朗拉扎维-呼罗珊省卡什弗鲁德流域制定了 2019-2020 年可持续的水-能源-粮食关系。本方法在多个气候-水文-经济-环境部门进行了建模。根据气候变化情景分析水文模型的结果表明,鉴于灌溉土地的现状,未来净需水量将增加 45%,同时作物产量将减少 13%。因此,在气候变化面前,如果采用一种考虑水、粮食和能源关系的整体方法,净需水量将下降到 71%,农业能源分配减少到 41%,温室气体排放减少 32%,农民的总体利润减少 73%。除了提高资源利用效率,这种方法还能有效避免单一部门发展政策的不良影响。由于大多数不可再生资源都是由农业部门消耗的,因此,除了资源利用的可持续性之外,从环境角度来看,发展关联方法也非常重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Water–Energy–Food Nexus: A New Mathematical Programming Approach

Abstract

Agriculture is one of the most important production sectors in the world. Water and energy are two essential inputs for food production. The agricultural sector is influenced by climate change the most. In this regard, this research aimed to present a new mathematical programming approach to studying the effects of climate change on the water–energy–food (WEF) nexus. A sustainable WEF nexus was developed for the basin of Kashfrud in Razavi Khorasan province, Iran for 2019–2020. The present approach was modeled in several climatic-hydrological-economic-environmental sectors. Analyzing the outcomes of a hydrological model in the context of climate change scenarios reveals that, given the current state of irrigated land, there will be a 45% increase in net water demand in the future, accompanied by a 13% decrease in crop yields. Consequently, by embracing a holistic approach that considers the nexus of water, food, and energy, the net water demand drops to 71%, the energy allocation to agriculture decreases to 41%, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 32%, and farmers’ overall profits decrease by 73% in the face of climate change. This approach would also be effective in avoiding the undesirable effects of single-sectoral development policies in addition to improving resource use efficiencies. Since most non-renewable resources are consumed by the agricultural sector, the development of the nexus approach is also important from an environmental perspective in addition to the sustainability of resource use.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
104
审稿时长
1.7 months
期刊介绍: International Journal of Environmental Research is a multidisciplinary journal concerned with all aspects of environment. In pursuit of these, environmentalist disciplines are invited to contribute their knowledge and experience. International Journal of Environmental Research publishes original research papers, research notes and reviews across the broad field of environment. These include but are not limited to environmental science, environmental engineering, environmental management and planning and environmental design, urban and regional landscape design and natural disaster management. Thus high quality research papers or reviews dealing with any aspect of environment are welcomed. Papers may be theoretical, interpretative or experimental.
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