冬季北极对热带东太平洋随后海面温度异常的潜在影响

Yuanyuan Guo, Xiaodan Chen
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摘要

尽管在年际时间尺度上,外热带强迫被认为是调节厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)特性的重要因素,但人们对北极强迫是否以及如何改变热带海洋表面温度(SST)却知之甚少。目前的研究揭示了北极地表净显热通量(SHF)与热带东太平洋(TEP)海表温度异常之间的重要联系。具体来说,二月份北极大气中异常上升的 SHF 会导致热带东太平洋在随后的春季和夏季变暖。与北极 SHF 上升异常相关的东北-西南倾斜的北太平洋涛动大气模式通过风-蒸发-SST 正反馈导致北太平洋副热带 SST 变冷,通过经向热平流、热跃层反馈和非线性过程进一步促进热带东太平洋 SST 变暖。因此,由之前异常的北极 SHF 驱动的春夏 TEP SST 异常有可能调节 ENSO 的季节性演变。我们的发现意味着,在全面理解厄尔尼诺/南方涛动变率和提高厄尔尼诺/南方涛动预测能力时,我们应该考虑北极与热带地区的联系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Potential Impact of Wintertime Arctic on the Subsequent Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Tropical Eastern Pacific
Despite extratropical forcing has been recognized as important factors modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties on the interannual time scale, little is known about whether and how Arctic forcing changes the tropical sea surface temperature (SST). The current study reveals a significant link between the net surface sensible heat flux (SHF) in the Arctic and the SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP). Specifically, anomalous upward SHF into the Arctic atmosphere in February leads to a warmer TEP in the subsequent spring and summer. A northeast-southwest-tilted North Pacific Oscillation-like atmospheric pattern associated with the upward Arctic SHF anomaly induces SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific via positive Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback, which further promotes TEP SST warming via meridional heat advection, thermocline feedback, and nonlinear processes. The spring-to-summer TEP SST anomalies driven by the preceding anomalous Arctic SHF hence potentially modulate the seasonal evolution of ENSO. Our finding implies that we should take into account the Arctic-tropics linkages when comprehensively understanding the ENSO variability and improving ENSO projection skills.
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