金融危机下农产品金融化与粮食安全之间的关联:金砖五国的经验启示

R. L. Manogna, Nishil Kulkarni, D. A. Krishna
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在探讨传统上被视为价格波动催化剂的农产品金融化是否会对金砖国家经济体的粮食安全产生任何影响。利用芝加哥期货交易所关于这些商品期货交易的数据,我们重点研究了年度交易量、年度未平仓合约以及年度交易量与年度未平仓合约的比率等参数。研究时间跨度为 2000-2021 年,包括金融危机前后的分析,并特别探讨了金砖国家,即巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非。研究结果表明,农产品金融化加剧了粮食价格的波动,对新兴经济体的粮食安全产生了不利影响。此外,研究还显示,与危机前相比,2008 年全球金融危机之后,农产品金融化对新兴国家粮食安全的影响更加明显。研究局限性/意义本文旨在通过提供农产品金融化对金砖经济体粮食安全潜在影响的实证证据,引起人们对农产品金融化的更多关注。很少有研究探讨农产品金融化对粮食安全的影响,特别是在单个农产品层面。通过比较金融危机前后的情况,可以进一步了解金融化不断演变的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Nexus between financialization of agricultural products and food security amid financial crisis: empirical insights from BRICS
PurposeThe study endeavors to explore whether the financialization of agricultural commodities, traditionally viewed as a catalyst for price volatility, has any repercussions on food security in BRICS economies.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical analysis employs the examination of three agricultural commodities, namely wheat, maize and soybean. Utilizing data from the Chicago Board of Trade on futures trading for these commodities, we focus on parameters such as annual trading volume, annual open interest contracts and the ratio of annual trading volume to annual open interest contracts. The study spans the period 2000–2021, encompassing pre- and post-financial crisis analyses and specifically explores the BRICS countries namely the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. To scrutinize the connections between financialization indicators and food security measures, the analysis employs econometric techniques such as panel data regression analysis and a moderating effects model.FindingsThe results indicate that the financialization of agricultural products contributes to the heightened food price volatility and has adverse effects on food security in emerging economies. Furthermore, the study reveals that the impact of the financialization of agricultural commodities on food security was more pronounced in emerging nations after the global financial crisis of 2008 compared to the pre-crisis period.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper seeks to draw increased attention to the financialization of agricultural commodities by presenting empirical evidence of its potential impact on food security in BRICS economies. The findings serve as a valuable guide for policymakers, offering insights to help them safeguard the security and availability of the world’s food supply.Originality/valueVery few studies have explored the effect of financialization of agricultural commodities on food security covering a sample of developing economies, with sample period from 2000 to 2021, especially at the individual agriculture commodity level. Understanding the evolving effects of financialization is further improved by comparing pre and post-financial crisis times.
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