外贸和外国直接投资对经济增长的影响:尼泊尔的经验启示

Arjun Kumar Dahal, G. Bhattarai, Prem Bahadur Budhathoki
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摘要

本研究旨在探讨外贸和外国直接投资对尼泊尔长期经济增长的影响。研究使用了从 1989/90 年至 2021/22 年尼泊尔财政部各种经济调查中收集的二手数据。本研究采用了描述性和解释性研究设计。迹线检验、最大特征检验和完全修正最小二乘法都是为了寻找响应变量和预测变量之间的长期协整关系和影响。迹检验和最大特征检验一致表明,因变量(国内生产总值)和自变量(进口、出口、贸易总额和外国直接投资)之间存在长期协整关系。在解释尼泊尔经济增长方面,出口和进口均为负值,且在统计上具有显著意义。出口每增加一个单位,尼泊尔的经济增长就会减少 0.748 个单位。同样,贸易总额和外国直接投资也对经济增长产生积极影响。外国直接投资每增加一个单位,尼泊尔的国内生产总值就会增加 0.0036 个单位。外贸对尼泊尔国内生产总值的增长具有乘数效应。经济增长 76.35% 的变化取决于外贸总量、出口、进口和外国直接投资。为促进可持续经济增长,决策者应优先制定鼓励增加外贸总额和外国直接投资的政策,同时谨慎管理过度依赖进口动态可能带来的负面影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth: Empirical insights from Nepal
This study aims to examine the impact of foreign trade and foreign direct investment on Nepal’s long-term economic growth. It uses secondary data from 1989/90 to 2021/22 collected from various economic surveys of the Ministry of Finance of Nepal. Descriptive and explanatory research designs are used in this study. The trace, max-eigen tests, and fully modified least square methods search the long-run co-integration and impact between response and predictor variables. Trace and max-eigen tests consistently point toward the long-run co-integration between dependent (gross domestic product) and independent (import, export, total trade, and foreign direct investment) variables. Exports and imports are found to be negative and statistically significant to explain Nepal’s economic growth. One unit increase in exports results in a 0.748 unit decrease in Nepal’s economic growth. Similarly, total trade volume and foreign direct investment positively impact economic growth. Each unit increase in foreign direct investment results in a 0.0036 unit increase in GDP in Nepal. Foreign trade has a multiplier effect on Nepal’s GDP growth. The 76.35 percent variation in economic growth depends upon total foreign trade volume, exports, imports, and foreign direct investment. To promote sustainable economic growth, policymakers should prioritize policies encouraging increased total foreign trade and foreign direct investment while carefully managing the potential negative impact of excessive reliance on import dynamics.
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