Strongly Convergent Homogeneous Approximations to Inhomogeneous Markov Jump Processes and Applications

The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial mathematical burden which is usually circumvented by using well-known generic distributional approximations or simulations. This article provides a novel approximation method that tailors the dynamics of a time-homogeneous Markov jump process to meet those of its time-inhomogeneous counterpart on an increasingly fine Poisson grid. Strong convergence of the processes in terms of the Skorokhod J1 metric is established, and convergence rates are provided. Under traditional regularity assumptions, distributional convergence is established for unconditional proxies, to the same limit. Special attention is devoted to the case where the target process has one absorbing state and the remaining ones transient, for which the absorption times also converge. Some applications are outlined, such as univariate hazard-rate density estimation, ruin probabilities, and multivariate phase-type density evaluation.Funding: M. Bladt and O. Peralta would like to acknowledge financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 200021_191984. O. Peralta acknowledges financial support from NSF Award #1653354 and AXA Research Fund Award on “Mitigating risk in the wake of the pandemic”.