电视广告对网站流量的影响

IF 1.3 4区数学 Q3 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry Pub Date : 2024-02-19 DOI:10.1002/asmb.2850

Lukáš Veverka, Vladimír Holý

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了一个模型程序，用于估算对电视广告的即时反应，并评估影响其规模的因素。首先，我们使用核平滑法捕捉网站访问的昼夜和季节性模式。其次，我们使用最大似然法估计广告后网站访问量的逐渐增加。第三，我们使用随机森林方法分析了估计的网站访问量增长与广告特征的非线性依赖关系。我们将提出的方法应用于一个数据集，该数据集包含一家电子商务公司 2019 年每分钟的有机网站访问量和电视广告的详细特征。结果表明，人们确实愿意在不同屏幕之间切换并进行多任务处理。此外，一天中的时间、电视频道和广告动机对广告的影响也有很大作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The impact of TV advertising on website traffic

We propose a modeling procedure for estimating immediate responses to TV ads and evaluating the factors influencing their size. First, we capture diurnal and seasonal patterns of website visits using the kernel smoothing method. Second, we estimate a gradual increase in website visits after an ad using the maximum likelihood method. Third, we analyze the nonlinear dependence of the estimated increase in website visits on characteristics of the ads using the random forest method. The proposed methodology is applied to a dataset containing minute-by-minute organic website visits and detailed characteristics of TV ads for an e-commerce company in 2019. The results show that people are indeed willing to switch between screens and multitask. Moreover, the time of the day, the TV channel, and the advertising motive play a great role in the impact of the ads.

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来源期刊

Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： ASMBI - Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry (formerly Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis) was first published in 1985, publishing contributions in the interface between stochastic modelling, data analysis and their applications in business, finance, insurance, management and production. In 2007 ASMBI became the official journal of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics (www.isbis.org). The main objective is to publish papers, both technical and practical, presenting new results which solve real-life problems or have great potential in doing so. Mathematical rigour, innovative stochastic modelling and sound applications are the key ingredients of papers to be published, after a very selective review process. The journal is very open to new ideas, like Data Science and Big Data stemming from problems in business and industry or uncertainty quantification in engineering, as well as more traditional ones, like reliability, quality control, design of experiments, managerial processes, supply chains and inventories, insurance, econometrics, financial modelling (provided the papers are related to real problems). The journal is interested also in papers addressing the effects of business and industrial decisions on the environment, healthcare, social life. State-of-the art computational methods are very welcome as well, when combined with sound applications and innovative models.