Early exercise, implied volatility spread and future stock return: Jumps bind them all

We find that early exercise premiums of exchange-traded single-stock American puts, in excess of the GBM-world premium, can negatively predict future stock returns. Simulations suggest that asset-value jumps, especially the mean jump-size, can positively drive this excess premium, while jump-size can also negatively induce the implied volatility (IV) spread of equivalent American option-pairs. Empirically, controlling for the effect of jump-size in excess premiums, the premium loses its predictive power. Furthermore, controlling for the excess premium or jump-size, IV spreads' predictability shown in the literature also diminishes. Our evidence survives under alternative explanations like informed trading, stock mispricing or market frictions.